<Click on chart for larger image> Bloomberg.com – Trump Is Making Bond Markets Nervous Investors see a burst of growth, bigger deficits, and more inflation. The U.S. stock market decided to take the optimistic view of the election of Donald Trump. But the story was different for U.S. Treasury bonds. The day after the election,… Continue reading Pain In Bonds
<Click on chart for larger image> Comment Before Yellen spoke, the probability of a December rate hike was 92%. After she spoke the odds were 96%. In other words, Yellen did nothing to change the market’s mind. The Wall Street Journal – Fed Rate Rise Could Come ‘Relatively Soon’ as Data Point to Stronger Economy Fed… Continue reading December Hike A Certainty
<Click on graphic for larger image> Nikkei Asian Review – Apple could make iPhones in US in future: sources iPhones might one day soon carry “Made in America” labels. Key Apple assembler Hon Hai Precision Industry, also known as Foxconn Technology Group, has been studying the possibility of moving iPhone production to the U.S., sources… Continue reading The Trump Effect?
Comment Donald’s Trump victory is being compared by many to Ronald Reagan’s 36 years ago. Both won in surprising fashion and ushered in a new Republican era. The chart below shows stock returns in the 30 days before and 50 days after each election. The blue line shows the S&P 500’s return surrounding Reagan’s election… Continue reading Trump And Reagan Post-Election Bounces
<Click on graphic for larger image> The Economist – Trump’s world: The new nationalism With his call to put “America First”, Donald Trump is the latest recruit to a dangerous nationalism WHEN Donald Trump vowed to “Make America Great Again!” he was echoing the campaign of Ronald Reagan in 1980. Back then voters sought renewal after… Continue reading More On The Populist Movement
<Click on graphic for larger image> <Click on graphic for larger image> Washington Examiner – Obama sets new record for regulations, 527 pages in just one day President Obama has just set a new record for rules and regulations, his administration spitting out 527 pages worth in just one day, as he races to put… Continue reading A Burst of Regulations
<Click on chart for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – Trump Victory Sparks Hedge-Fund Bonanza Volatility of bonds and currency after president-elect’s victory ‘turbocharging’ the industry Hedge funds around the world are already cashing in on Donald Trump’s surprise U.S. presidential election victory. Traders last week broadly welcomed Mr. Trump’s victory, believing it would… Continue reading Are Hedge Funds Now Winning?
<Click on chart for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – Bank of Japan Surprises With Plan to Buy Unlimited JGBs at Fixed Rates The move is the first clear sign that the central bank intends to take action to keep a lid on yields The Bank of Japan on Thursday offered to buy an unlimited… Continue reading The BoJ Acts
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<Click on graphic for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – Strong Dollar Could Be Rally’s Weak Link Early victim could be tepid recovery in U.S. corporate profits. The dollar’s sudden rise is reigniting fears that a strong currency could complicate the prospects for an economic rebound, slowing U.S. growth and profits while intensifying capital flight… Continue reading The Surging Dollar
<Click on graphic for larger image> The Economist – Emerging markets: Reversal of fortune The American election has added a new source of uncertainty FOR MUCH of 2016, things seemed to be going well in emerging markets. A pickup in commodity prices signalled that the global economy (and China’s, in particular) was more robust than feared… Continue reading Emerging Markets
Bloomberg.com – Global Trade Is Slowing “China had a great run, but it’s over.” Until he takes office in January, President-elect Donald Trump won’t be able to follow through on his pledges to scrap the Trans-Pacific Partnership, renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement, or penalize Chinese imports. Even without him, protectionism is rising, and… Continue reading Global Trade Slowing