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November 18, 2016
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The Fed Is Locked And Loaded For December
November 17, 2016
<Click on chart for larger image> Reuters – Only a surprise will halt December Fed rate hike: Bullard The Federal Reserve will hike U.S. interest rates in December barring any major shocks, policymaker James Bullard said on Wednesday, adding that a single rate increase may be enough to move monetary policy to a “neutral setting”.… Continue reading The Fed Is Locked And Loaded For December
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The Reflation Trade
November 17, 2016
<Click on chart for larger image> Bloomberg.com – Investors Just Flooded Into Financials at the Fastest Weekly Pace Ever In the week following the election, the Financial Select Sector SPDR exchange-traded fund amassed $4.9 billion of inflows — a record, and more than it accumulated in the past three years. This ETF has stakes in… Continue reading The Reflation Trade
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Trumpenomics
November 17, 2016
CNBC – Trump, GOP tax plan could raise S&P 500 earnings by 9 percent, Citi says Citi Research strategist Tobias Levkovich told investors Donald Trump’s and the Republican Congress’ economic agenda may substantially boosts corporate earnings and economic growth if enacted. “A meaningful fiscal push in addition to improved lending standards might lead to accelerated… Continue reading Trumpenomics
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The Yuan’s Weakening
November 17, 2016
<Click on graphic for larger image> AQA – Peter Forbes: Yuan Weakening Continues While Markets Digest Trump Acting while the financial markets digest US election results, the PBOC is continuing a young tradition of weakening its currency in advance of tighter US monetary policy. With markets fixated on the US presidential campaign and results, the… Continue reading The Yuan’s Weakening
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Poor Liquidity Affects Trading Costs
November 17, 2016
The Wall Street Journal – Bond Selloff Highlights Liquidity Shortage, Changing Strategies The global bond selloff has revived concerns about the ease of trading in bond markets, pushing investors to re-examine their strategies. Post-financial-crisis regulation forced banks to retreat from their traditional role as market makers. That has sapped some bond markets of liquidity, research… Continue reading Poor Liquidity Affects Trading Costs
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The BoJ’s Latest Intervention
November 17, 2016
Bloomberg.com – BOJ Fires Warning at Bond Market With Unlimited Buying Plan The Bank of Japan fired a warning shot at the government bond market Thursday, announcing its first offer to buy an unlimited amount of securities to maintain its yield-curve target. The so-called fixed-rate operation yielded no bids, a sign that the move was more… Continue reading The BoJ’s Latest Intervention
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The Dollar As A Risk Measure
November 17, 2016
Reuters – Dollar rise a threat to global financial stability: BIS The dollar is now the best barometer of global investor risk appetite and financial market leverage, making its current surge potentially destabilizing for the global financial system, a senior BIS official said on Tuesday. Hyun Song Shin, head of research at the Basel-based Bank… Continue reading The Dollar As A Risk Measure
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Oil Supply/Demand
November 17, 2016
<Click on graphic for larger image> Bloomberg – How Big Oil Loses Even Without Peak Demand The first rule of making projections out to 2040 is to recognize the fact that you’ll almost certainly be wrong…But when you’re the International Energy Agency, you have to go out on a limb and peer a quarter-century ahead… Continue reading Oil Supply/Demand
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Pensions Struggle In Low Rate Environment
November 17, 2016
Bloomberg.com – Bond Squeeze ‘Bleeding to Death’ $28 Billion French Pension Fund France’s second-largest pension fund is at risk of “bleeding to death” if government bond yields remain low and it’s unable to increase investments in riskier assets, according to the company that manages the fund. “Our allocation to bonds is absolutely sub-optimal,” Philippe Desfosses, chief… Continue reading Pensions Struggle In Low Rate Environment
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A Look At The Euro As A Global Currency
November 17, 2016
<Click on chart for larger image> MoneyBeat (WSJ Blog) – Maligned at Home, the Euro Joins the Dollar as a True Global Currency The founders of the euro dreamed that one day their currency would join the dollar on a truly global pedestal. The euros’ many critics sneered. But according to new research, that day… Continue reading A Look At The Euro As A Global Currency
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Chinese Holdings Of U.S. Treasuries Continue To Fall
November 17, 2016
<Click on chart for larger image> Bloomberg.com – China Holdings of U.S. Treasuries Decline to Lowest Since 2012 China’s holdings of U.S. Treasuries declined to the lowest level in four years, as the world’s second-largest economy runs down its reserves to support the yuan. The biggest foreign holder of U.S. government debt had $1.16 trillion… Continue reading Chinese Holdings Of U.S. Treasuries Continue To Fall