<Click on chart for larger image> The Financial Times – Fund managers: the customers’ yachts The rise of passive products is a bigger threat than regulation Hold the front page. It turns out that fund managers do not deliver value for many of their investors, partly because they charge too much. So says the UK’s… Continue reading Active vs. Passive
<Click on chart for larger image> Comment As the chart above shows, the decline in global bonds is the fourth largest of the last generation. Only the routs in 2015, 2008 and 2000 saw bigger declines by this measure. Barron’s – Is the Rush Away From Bonds Overdone? The postelection move into equities appears to be… Continue reading The Bond Rout
<click on chart for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – Euro, Dollar Flirt With Parity Trump outlook and Fed’s likely move are strengthening dollar, and ECB may not help stop euro’s fall A 10-day losing streak for the euro against the U.S. dollar is rekindling an old debate: Will the single currency reach parity… Continue reading The Euro
Comment Stop us if you heard this before … a major election surprise leaves the media and pollsters in shock as the establishment candidate loses. This edition is Sarkozy’s defeat in the French primaries. The New York Times – Nicolas Sarkozy Is Out as François Fillon Takes Surprise Lead in French Primary A taciturn, tradition-minded… Continue reading French Elections
<Click on cover for larger image> Barron’s – Randall W. Forsyth: Taming Federal Debt: The Case for 100-Year Bonds Why Donald Trump should channel Alexander Hamilton and take advantage of ultralow interest rates. Given that, the call for borrowers should be clear: Go long. It doesn’t take a genius on the order of Hamilton to… Continue reading The Case For 100-Year Bonds
The Financial Times – Merkel to seek fourth term as Germany’s leader Trump victory underscores chancellor’s importance to world liberal order Angela Merkel has said she will seek a fourth term as German chancellor, less than two weeks after Donald Trump’s election in the US left her as the west’s pre-eminent defender of liberal values. She told… Continue reading Merkel Runs Again
DealB%k (NYT Blog) – Italy’s Banks Are in a Slow-Motion Crisis. And Europe May Pay. Victor Massiah has grown weary of talk that the Italian banking system is so threadbare and stuffed with terrible loans that it threatens Europe with another financial crisis. The mansion that serves as local headquarters for the bank he runs,… Continue reading Italian Banks
The Financial Times – Trump and Yellen: the politicisation of the Fed This reflationary regime has been driven by much stronger global economic activity since mid-2016, and latterly by a belief that Donald Trump’s election victory will lead to US fiscal easing, along with the possibility of the “politicisation” of the Federal Reserve, implying overly… Continue reading What Might The New FOMC Look Like?
<Click on graphic for larger image> Bloomberg.com – U.S. Deficit Is in the Middle of Pack Among Big Economies: Chart President-elect Donald Trump is preparing to push for spending increases and tax cuts immediately after taking office on Jan. 20. That’s raising concerns among fiscal conservatives that the recent widening of the U.S. budget deficit… Continue reading Comparing Deficits Across The Globe
<Click on graphic for larger image> AQA – Ben Breitholtz: USTs and US $ Most Extreme Move in History UST yields, curve, and the US$ are at their most extreme in history according to st devs from 90-day averages. Their average is exceeding +3 st devs as yields cruise higher, curve steepens (2y10y) and US… Continue reading Extreme Moves In Treasuries & The Dollar
<click on chart for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – Junk Bond Investors Appear Bullish on Donald Trump Administration Risk premiums haven’t risen and companies are still issuing bonds, even as money flows out of high-yield funds Count the junk bond market among those sending relatively optimistic signs about a Donald Trump administration. Prices… Continue reading Junk Bonds
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