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March 15, 2017
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What Does The Fed Funds Market Think?
March 14, 2017
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Discussing Markets
March 14, 2017
Comment Jim Bianco was on Bloomberg TV Asia last night discussing the Fed hike, the possibility of more hikes this year, and inflation. To view the interview, click on the image above. To view any of our recent interviews, click here. The chart above shows the probability of a March 15 rate hike and the… Continue reading Discussing Markets
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Investors Fleeing High Yield For Investment Grade Corporates
March 14, 2017
Bloomberg – The Great Corporate Bond Rush of 2017 Persists as Fed Mulls Hike U.S. companies are issuing bonds at the fastest pace ever. And investors say the Federal Reserve’s next rate hike may do little to change that.Investment-grade firms are on track to complete the busiest first quarter for debt sales since at least 1999.… Continue reading Investors Fleeing High Yield For Investment Grade Corporates
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Energy Markets on Edge Over Shale Production
March 14, 2017
Reuters – Oil hovers near three-month lows as investors await data Data from the industry group the American Petroleum Institute on U.S. crude and product stockpiles is also due later on Tuesday. U.S. shale oil production in April was set for its biggest monthly increase since October as output in the Permian Basin, America’s fastest… Continue reading Energy Markets on Edge Over Shale Production
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VIX and Policy Uncertainty Divergence May Not Be What it Seems
March 14, 2017
Bloomberg – Why Robert Shiller Is Worried About the Trump Rally ‘The market is way over-priced,’ Nobel laureate says Charts illustrating the conundrum have been making the rounds on trading floors. One, called “the most worrying chart we know” by Societe Generale SA at the end of last year, shows a surging index of global economic… Continue reading VIX and Policy Uncertainty Divergence May Not Be What it Seems
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Dutch Election Update
March 14, 2017
Comment If 2016 was the year of the populist movement with Brexit, Trump and the Italian referendum, what will 2017 bring? The first measure is the Dutch election tomorrow. Will it signal a continuation of the populist movement? The chart above shows the PVV, the populist party headed by Geert Wilders, is expected to win the… Continue reading Dutch Election Update
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How Fed Officials Vote
March 14, 2017
Bloomberg Business – These Fed Officials Give the Best Policy Signal Monetary policy doves serve as better beacons of the central bank’s future policy path, according to 30 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Respondents rated Fed officials on two scales: hawk versus dove, and their reliability in signaling future policy. Economists ranked the chair, historically the… Continue reading How Fed Officials Vote
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Regulation
March 14, 2017
Morningstar – U.S. Asset Managers Still Face Difficult Future Given the change in leadership that has taken place in Washington this year, with Republicans in control of the House of Representatives, the Senate, and the White House for the first time in a decade, we expect major changes in regulatory and fiscal policy. Indeed, the… Continue reading Regulation
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Bond Issuance
March 14, 2017
Bloomberg Business – The Great Corporate Bond Rush of 2017 Persists as Fed Mulls Hike Investment-grade issues above $360 billion so far in quarter U.S. companies are issuing bonds at the fastest pace ever. And investors say the Federal Reserve’s next rate hike may do little to change that. Investment-grade firms are on track to… Continue reading Bond Issuance
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Distorted Markets
March 14, 2017
Bloomberg View – Ben Emons: Price and Value Are Increasingly Distorted in Markets Take yields on shorter-maturity U.S. Treasuries. Federal Reserve officials have made it clear in recent weeks that it is ready to accelerate the pace of interest-rate increases. The comments caused traders to reprice the probability of a hike this week, and the price… Continue reading Distorted Markets
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Central Banks Are Returning To “Normal”
March 14, 2017
Reuters.com – At the Fed, spring comes early with return to new ‘normal’ When Fed officials unexpectedly rallied behind a March interest rate increase in recent weeks, the unusually blunt message was easily accepted. Investor expectations changed and short-term rates rose. But the overall yield curve, the range of interest rates from short to long term… Continue reading Central Banks Are Returning To “Normal”