Bloomberg.com – Bitcoin Miners Signal Revolt Amid Sluggish Blockchain You may not know it by looking at bitcoin’s recent price surge, but the infrastructure underpinning the world’s most popular virtual currency is teetering. While speculators continue to push the value of the digital money to record highs against the U.S. dollar, the system that verifies… Continue reading Bitcoin’s Blockchain Backlog
Comment The chart above shows the probability of a March 15 rate hike and the track record of the fed funds market over the last 90 meetings. A hike Wednesday is virtually a certainty. What about the rest of the year? The chart below shows the number of rate hikes the market is expecting by… Continue reading All Systems Go For Fed Hike
Bloomberg – The Era of Good Feelings for Economic Policy News In February, 28% of respondents voluntarily mentioned news they heard about the government’s economic policy in a favorable light, a record high. The previous, pre-2016 election peak for positive mentions was just 9%. This is especially notable as the university doesn’t specifically ask participants… Continue reading Positive Sentiment Not All Roses
Fact Set – Earnings Insight • Earnings Scorecard: As of today (with 99% of the companies in the S&P 500 reporting actual results for Q4 2016), 65% of S&P 500 companies have beat the mean EPS estimate and 53% of S&P 500 companies have beat the mean sales estimate. • Earnings Growth: For Q4 2016, the… Continue reading An Earnings Update
Comment The two charts above show that large speculators and money managers walked into the crude oil sell-off very long. The New York Times – Oil Price Drop Triggers a ‘Herd Mentality’ of Selling Often turbulent, the oil market had become almost boring the past few months, with prices moving little and hovering around $51… Continue reading Crude Oil
The Wall Street Journal – Going Dutch: What Elections in the Netherlands Could Mean for Markets Geert Wilders, dubbed the ‘Dutch Trump,’ is expected to do well at the polls next week Even as investors fret over the French election, they seemed relaxed about another national poll where a euroskeptic candidate could do well—the Netherlands.… Continue reading The Dutch Election
The Wall Street Journal – How One Hedge Fund Gained as China Battled Yuan Speculators Eclectica bet on a rise in the cost of borrowing yuan in Hong Kong The yuan is unusual among global currencies in that it has two exchange rates against the dollar. Within China, the yuan-dollar rate is fixed each… Continue reading A Tale Of Two Yuan Markets
Barron’s – What Fund Flows Really Say About the Market The stocks whose daily trading volumes were most affected by ETF flows also performed the best. Madison Square Garden sells out most nights, but it doesn’t mean the Knicks are worth watching. They’ve won one playoff series in the past 16 seasons. Similarly, investors are crowding… Continue reading ETF Flows
The Wall Street Journal – Trapped Between Mario and Marine, the Only Way Is Up for European Bond Yields Whichever way elections in France and the Netherlands go, investors are confident bond yields are only headed in one direction Investors increasingly say that no matter what comes out of Europe’s fraught political calendar, the region’s… Continue reading European Yield Forecasts
The Wall Street Journal – Justin Lahart: Strong Jobs Market Is a Risk to Growth Employment has been stronger than the economy, and that can be a risk if GDP growth picks up The job market keeps steaming ahead, but the economy is still just poking along. The reason behind this disconnect is a risk… Continue reading GDP Forecasts
Barron’s – The Problem With Confidence Right now, confidence is surging in the market, but it has yet to translate into tangible gains Still, that confidence has yet to translate into tangible gains. Last week, the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow gross-domestic-product forecaster is pointing to economic growth of just 1.2% during the first quarter of 2017,… Continue reading At Some Point Confidence Needs To Translate To Growth