Charts of the Week Topics Covered This Week Include: Commitments of Traders Update – New Format Now Available! Earnings Expectations Revenue Expectations A Look At The Unemployment Rate, Wage Growth And Payrolls How Much Has The Falling Participation Rate Mattered? Investors Fleeing High Yield For Investment Grade Corporates Energy Markets on Edge Over Shale Production… Continue reading Charts of the Week
Comment The blue line in the chart below shows the fed funds market has placed the odds of a hike today at 100%. Additionally, the market is pricing a 66% probability of a June hike. However, the Fed press conference has forced huge re-pricing in these markets in the past, so this could radically change… Continue reading Fed Day Is Here
MarketWatch – Brett Arends: This is the most overvalued stock market on record — even worse than 1929 John Hussman says run from an overvalued S&P 500 This is the most dangerous and overvalued stock market on record — worse than 2007, worse than 2000, even worse than 1929. Or so warns Wall Street soothsayer… Continue reading Scary Stock Market Talk
Comment We have recently discussed U.S. equity markets following soft (survey-based) data higher while hard (realized economic growth) data lags behind. This divergence has equities pricing in substantial improvements in consumer and government spending. Another example of soft data is in the next block below. Our chart from last week shows forecasts for major components of… Continue reading Equities Chasing Sentiment Higher
The Wall Street Journal – CEOs’ Economic Optimism Jumps by Most in Seven Years Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook Index rose 19.1 points in the first quarter from the fourth quarter, to reach 93.3 Leaders of the largest U.S. companies are becoming more optimistic about sales growth, hiring and capital investment, causing a measure of chief-executive… Continue reading More Soft Data Heading Higher
Reuters – IEA says oil market could tilt into deficit in the first half if OPEC sticks to cuts Global oil inventories rose for the first time in January as the market grappled with a swell in production last year, but if OPEC maintains its output cuts, demand should overtake supply in the first half of… Continue reading Rising Global Supplies and U.S. Shale Production Leave OPEC Off Balance
The Financial Times – Saudis stand by commitment to oil production cuts Effort to allay fears after Opec data show output increase as prices fall Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest oil exporter, moved to allay fears that the kingdom was backing away from its pledge to curb production, underlining its concern about a 10 per… Continue reading What Are The Saudis Planning?
CNN – Populism on the rise? Netherlands gears up for bellwether vote Voters in the Netherlands head to the polls Wednesday in an election widely seen as an indicator of populist sentiment across Europe. With the first round of the French presidential election just over a month away and Germany headed to the ballot box later… Continue reading The Dutch Vote Today
Bloomberg.com – Here’s One Chart That Captures the Debate Over Quantitative Easing Financial asset gains proved stellar; wages not so much Markets still face a test: how can they perform without QE “We don’t know how effective QE has been because we don’t know what would have happened without it,” said Peter Oppenheimer, chief global… Continue reading QE Inspired Returns
Bloomberg.com – Le Pen Win Would Wipe Out 25% From French Bank Shares, Citi Says A victory for Marine Le Pen in France’s presidential elections would cripple the country’s banking stocks, says Citigroup Inc. French lenders would lose about a quarter of their market value on average should the anti-euro candidate win in May, Citigroup analysts forecast.… Continue reading The French Election
Bloomberg Business – Traders Waiting for 3% U.S. Yields Should Prep for Pain: Bianco As benchmark U.S. government bond yields gun for their highest levels since 2014, traders shouldn’t yet get excited about the long-awaited bear market, according to veteran investment analyst Jim Bianco. “We’ve got this gigantic short in the bond market right now —… Continue reading Too Many Bond Shorts?
The Wall Street Journal – Why Emerging Markets Shouldn’t Fear the Fed Stronger growth is the key element for investors to watch The U.S. interest-rate cycle finally seems to be getting going in earnest. One traditional fear for investors is that higher U.S. rates and a stronger dollar might unsettle emerging markets. But the bigger… Continue reading EM And The Fed