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March 17, 2017
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Yellen Forgets About The Balance Sheet
March 16, 2017
Comment During Yellen’s presser yesterday, Anna Swanson of the Washington Post asked the following question: You said that the neutral level of the federal funds rate is quite low. How close do you judge it to be to the inflation rate? And what do you anticipate will be the force pushing up the neutral interest… Continue reading Yellen Forgets About The Balance Sheet
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Why Did The Fed Hike, Janet?
March 16, 2017
Comment Kathleen Hayes of Bloomberg asked Yellen why the Fed hiked: I’m going to try to take the opposite side of this, because — and this question about market expectations, and how the market’s got things wrong, and then how you say the Fed suddenly clarified what it already said. But for example, if the… Continue reading Why Did The Fed Hike, Janet?
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Tracking Fed Speech
March 16, 2017
Comment The left panel in the interactive chart below scores Federal Reserve communications for dovish (blue) to hawkish (orange) comments. These communications include a truly comprehensive review of all speeches, meeting minutes, and press conferences. The middle panel shows the implied pace of hikes over the next 12 months using the inputs to our dovish/hawkish… Continue reading Tracking Fed Speech
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Understanding Fedspeak
March 16, 2017
[pageview class=”PDFViewer” url=”https://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/wp-content/plugins/PDFViewer/plugin.php?id=358″] Comment After each FOMC meeting, we highlight a St. Louis Fed study on the rising complexity of the FOMC statement. As the charts below show, both the word count and the Flesch-Kincaid level have come down from their peaks of the past couple years (the Flesch-Kincaid Grade Level measures the number of… Continue reading Understanding Fedspeak
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Deposit Rates Remain Low Despite Fed Hikes
March 16, 2017
The Wall Street Journal – The Fed Raised Rates. Don’t Expect the Same for Your Bank Deposits At some point, the Federal Reserve’s rate increases will trickle down to savers, who have been getting next to nothing on their deposits for years. But it will continue to be a slow and uncertain process. When the… Continue reading Deposit Rates Remain Low Despite Fed Hikes
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Betting On Emerging Markets
March 16, 2017
Bloomberg.com – Pimco Adviser’s ‘Trade of a Decade’ Beckons in Emerging Markets The investor who called emerging markets the “trade of a decade” before their rally last year sees further gains to come from developing-nation assets. Christopher Brightman, the chief investment officer at Research Affiliates, says that while emerging equities cost more now than when he… Continue reading Betting On Emerging Markets
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GDPNow Falls From 2.5% To 0.9% In Just Two Weeks
March 16, 2017
The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta – GDPNow The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2017 is 0.9 percent on March 15, down from 1.2 percent on March 8. The GDP growth forecast declined 0.3 percentage points on Friday when the February estimate of the… Continue reading GDPNow Falls From 2.5% To 0.9% In Just Two Weeks
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The Aftermath Of The Dutch Election
March 16, 2017
Bloomberg.com – Dutch Liberals Defeat Wilders’s Party in Blow to Populist Surge Euro climbs to highest in more than a month on result Freedom Party, Christian Democrats, D66 tied for second place Dutch voters turned out in force to back pro-European parties and help Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s Liberals easily beat off an election challenge by… Continue reading The Aftermath Of The Dutch Election
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Big Banks Urge Traders To Stay Long Crude
March 16, 2017
Comment On Tuesday Jim was on Bloomberg TV talking about crude’s oversupply and traders’ extreme long position in oil. To view any of our recent interviews, click here. Comment We discussed shale production and extreme speculator long positions earlier this week. Citibank disagrees and recommends taking the other side. Bloomberg.com – Citi Tells Investors to… Continue reading Big Banks Urge Traders To Stay Long Crude
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Equity Issuance vs. Demand
March 16, 2017
MoneyBeat (WSJ Blog) – Where are the Bulls in This Bull Market? Corporations have spent hundreds of billions annually in recent years buying back their own stock. But what if, after netting out all the supply and demand flows in the equities market, the corporations are the only ones on balance buying their stock? That’s… Continue reading Equity Issuance vs. Demand
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Projecting T-Bill Supply
March 16, 2017
FT Alphaville – Congress to the Treasury Department: “Dance!” The Treasury has had to cut its cash balance to $23bn from $400bn over about three months, since it isn’t allowed to hold a buffer going into the debt ceiling’s reinstatement. This has made T-bills — which are among the most money-like securities out there —… Continue reading Projecting T-Bill Supply