The Trump administration appears to be borrowing Silicon Valley's playbook in moving fast and breaking things. They desire a lower 10-year yield, which would likely require a lower dollar. The Mar-a-Lago Accord is a rumored proposal to radically restructure U.S. Treasury debt, converting foreigners' holdings into ultra-long-term debt with a lower coupon.
The Q4 2024 earnings season is nearing its end. Full-quarter growth has accelerated as companies have beat expectations.
Today's topics include more on inflation seasonality, inflation expectations, finally something other than wait-and-see from a Fed official, risk-on, risk-off, an alternate take on the CAPE ratio, stock market dispersion, the Dow vs. S&P 500, the state of the housing market amidst high mortgage rates, and hedge funds find loophole in European corporate bonds
Demand for physical gold is strong. Prices remain near the $3,000 level. What's going on with gold?
Today's topics include Jim discusses Mar-a-Lago accord, how can Bessent lower 10-year yields?, another change from pandemic times is sticking, mortgage rates take a slight dip, end of unicorn bubble, auto insurance rates, when does optimism turn into a stronger economy?, China's foreign investment outflow, a quick take on defense spending, and global energy usage.
Household debt in the U.S. stood at $18.04 trillion in the fourth quarter.
Credit utilization has risen since 2021.
People under 30 and over 70 hold a relatively small amount of debt compared to other age groups.
The average third party collection stood at $1631 in the fourth quarter.
Household debt broken down by delinquency status