The data suggests this race is too close to call. Last week (pre-debate), Trump had a slight lead among bettors. This week, Harris has a slight lead. Post-debate polls will be rolling in next week.
Several liquidity charts worth watching as the Fed's reverse repo facility continues to be drained
An update on the world's richest people
A long-term look at the S&P 500's real total return
Some interesting charts from our recent posts
In the latest installment of Talking Data, Jim discusses yesterday's CPI report and rate cuts.
Today's topics include more on yesterday's CPI release, setting up for a 25bp cut, markets will decide when enough is enough, banks' net interest income, BoJ hawk sees 1% rates in Japan...by 2027, China dragging down crude & U.S. rates?, Chinese stocks make a 5-year round-trip, and ETF flows
August's inflation data came in right at expectations. Diving deeper into the data, year-over-year shelter prices rose for the first time since March 2023. The door has likely closed on traders' hopes of a larger rate cut at next week's FOMC meeting.
Today's topics include breakevens are pricing inflation below 2%, on the road to $2 trillion, lending standards & Fed rate cut timing, the 2s10s yield curve has disinverted, hedge fund activity & PE lending, eyes on the BoJ, the structure of the labor market, more on a struggling Chinese economy, and a focus on the costs & outcomes of AI
Today's topics include previewing tomorrow's CPI report, the yield curve, economic uncertainty, handicapping the debate, Yellen on the U.S. economy, a struggling European economy, BoJ signals it will keep rates unchanged next week, China's battle against deflation, the return of HELOCs, and multi-manager hedge funds see outflows