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Still No Government Shutdown Being Priced Into Markets

April 24, 2017

Bloomberg.com – Bond Bulls See Opportunity as Government Shutdown Deadline Nears The negotiations in Washington will kick in as investors have lost confidence in the prospect of the administration and lawmakers hammering out fiscal stimulus any time soon, although President Donald Trump intends to release a tax plan this week. Republicans’ failed attempt to overhaul health care… Continue reading Still No Government Shutdown Being Priced Into Markets

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Some Bearish Charts

April 24, 2017

The Financial Times – US charts that hearten bearish investors Strain in corporate and consumer lending as flatter yield curve sends dour message Wall Street still exudes widespread optimism that 2017 will provide another year of solid if unspectacular economic growth and only gentle interest rate rises. With the S&P 500 up over 4.5 per cent… Continue reading Some Bearish Charts

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The Unintended Consequences Of ETFs

April 24, 2017

The Wall Street Journal – How a $1.4 Billion ETF Gold Rush Rattled Mining Stocks Around the World Unruly trading in the shares of some small gold companies is rekindling investor concern about the pressure that fast-growing passive funds can exert on the stocks they are meant to track. In the past six months, waves… Continue reading The Unintended Consequences Of ETFs

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Emerging Market Debt

April 24, 2017

The Wall Street Journal – Flood of Dollar Debt Could Come Back to Haunt Emerging Economies Emerging-market companies are binging on U.S. dollar debt and that could become a source of trouble in some parts of the world if growth slows, interest rates rise or the dollar resumes its ascent. Governments and companies in the… Continue reading Emerging Market Debt

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Retail’s Struggles Continue

April 24, 2017

Bloomberg Gadfly – Shelly Banjo:  Clock’s Up on Retailers’ Borrowed Time It’s been nearly 10 years since the Great Recession zapped consumers’ jobs, 401(k)s and spending, sending retailers into a tailspin and megastores like Circuit City and Linens ‘n Things out of business. For retailers, the mantra became “only the strong will survive.”But here we are,… Continue reading Retail’s Struggles Continue

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Devil’s In The Details For Trump Tax Plan

April 24, 2017

Bloomberg.com – Mulvaney Says Trump Tax Plan Details Won’t Be Ready Until June The White House will offer “specific governing principles’’ for its tax plan this week along with indications of what new rates would be, but a complete proposal probably won’t be ready until June, President Donald Trump’s budget director said. Trump has promised… Continue reading Devil’s In The Details For Trump Tax Plan

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Survey Data vs. Actual Data

April 24, 2017

The Financial Times – Gillian Tett: Trump tested as hard economic data spell trouble The US president should not be seduced by ‘soft’ signals on sentiment If you utter the words “hard versus soft” in Washington policy circles, it usually signals the start of an earnest foreign policy debate. Not right now, however. For as the… Continue reading Survey Data vs. Actual Data

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Could Illinois Be Downgraded To Junk?

April 24, 2017

Bloomberg Business – Illinois Morass Fuels Speculation It’ll Be First Junk-Bond State What’s worse than the worst? Illinois may find out. The lowest-rated U.S. state is headed toward its third year of an unprecedented budget impasse as Republican Governor Bruce Rauner and the Democrat-led legislature repeatedly fail to agree on how to plug chronic deficits and… Continue reading Could Illinois Be Downgraded To Junk?

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Cartoons

April 24, 2017

Newsclips

The Growing Divide Between Survey-Based Data And Realized Data

April 21, 2017

  Comment Yesterday we hosted a conference call titled The Growing Divide Between Survey-Based Data And Realized Data.  The handout and replay information can be found below. The handout can be found here (starts with the second post). Mp3 replay can be heard below: [audio:https://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/SubscriberArea/042017.mp3|titles=Conference Call ] Mp3 link (for mobile devices)

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Newsclips

Getting a Leg up on Financial Conditions

April 21, 2017

Bloomberg – Fed Unmoved by Soft Patch Hardens Conviction on Rate-Hike Plan Don’t bet on the Federal Reserve blinking again. U.S. central bankers appear to be on course to raise interest rates twice more this year and remain confident in their forecast for growth of around 2 percent despite a series of weak first-quarter reports. That’s… Continue reading Getting a Leg up on Financial Conditions

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OPEC Faces Compliance Test as U.S. Shale Oil Accelerates

April 21, 2017

Bloomberg – Oil Producers Deliver Cuts. Oil Market Delivers Nothing. Ten of the 21 countries that agreed to pump less stayed within their pledged output limits in March, versus five in February. OPEC on the whole cut production by more than required. Non-OPEC members still have far to go, though their efforts improved dramatically last month, preliminary… Continue reading OPEC Faces Compliance Test as U.S. Shale Oil Accelerates