The Financial Times – The five markets charts that matter for investors French election barometers, US retailers and a corporate debt bubble Here is a selection of five charts that FT Markets believes are worth watching. A fresh chart will be added on a regular basis. The 5 percent advance in the $20tn benchmark S&P… Continue reading Interesting Charts
Bloomberg.com – World’s Biggest Stock Markets Haven’t Been This Split Since 2008 Shanghai share moves are at odds with the S&P 500 index Divergence is driven by China effort to rein in shadow banking The Chinese and U.S. stock markets are going in opposite directions. An intensifying crackdown against leverage in Asia’s biggest economy has… Continue reading Chinese Stocks vs. U.S. Stocks
Dealb%k (NY Times Blog) – Andrew Ross Sorkin: Partisan Divide Over Economic Outlook Worries Ben Bernanke Ben Bernanke is worried. The former chairman of the Federal Reserve, who can offer his thoughts freely now that he is three years out of office, is not anxious about the objective, actual state of the economy. Rather, he… Continue reading Bernanke Talks
Comment The odds of a tax cut according to the betting markets have surged in recent days on the news below. The New York Times – Trump Is Said to Seek Cutting Corporate Tax Rate to 15 Percent President Trump has instructed his advisers to make cutting the corporate tax rate to 15 percent a centerpiece… Continue reading Tax Cuts Coming
Bloomberg Business – Shale’s the Wild Horse OPEC Can’t Tame It was all so simple. By lifting restraints on output, Saudi Arabia would stop subsidizing high-cost oil producers and halt the rapid rise in U.S. production that was eating into OPEC’s market share. At least, that was the logic back in November 2014. But things haven’t… Continue reading Crude Oil Production
Comment As the chart above shows, the odds of a shutdown have never been close to 50% and have collapsed in the last few days. The New York Times – Five Key Questions as a Government Shutdown Looms Congressional leaders and White House officials have steered the nation to the brink of a government shutdown… Continue reading Will A Shutdown Happen?
The Financial Times – How Marine Le Pen can steer a narrow path to victory in France A low turnout or significant Macron error could open way for the far-right leader Europe is delighted, the markets are reassured and the French establishment is showing renewed confidence that Marine Le Pen will not become president of… Continue reading Can Le Pen Win?
None Today
Comment Through Friday only 96 of the S&P 500 have reported Q1 2017 earnings. The chart below shows blended earnings estimates, meaning it uses the 96 actual reports and the median estimate of Wall Street analysts for the 404 that have not yet reported. Analysts currently expect year-over-year operating growth to come in at 10.1%… Continue reading An Earnings Update
The Financial Times – Macron win buoys markets but eyes turn to National Assembly vote Ability to implement policy seen as next risk factor for investors After starting the year fretting about France’s presidential contest, investors are toasting the prospect of Emmanuel Macron defeating Marine Le Pen next month, spurring significant gains for the euro, European… Continue reading And Like That (Poof), Volatility is Gone
The Financial Times – Euro and French stocks surge on expectation Macron beats Le Pen The euro and French equities surged on Monday as investors bet that Emmanuel Macron will probably beat Marine Le Pen in a run-off for the French presidency, removing the threat a Eurosceptic will run the eurozone’s second-largest economy. The relief… Continue reading Macron And Le Pen Set To Face Off
Financial Times – The global economic recovery is for real It looks like the global economic recovery is for real. The latest update to the Brookings-FT Tiger (Tracking Indexes for the Global Economic Recovery) shows that, after numerous fits and false starts, the recovery has become broad-based and stable — if not vigorous. The advanced economies… Continue reading Developed / Emerging Market Growth