The Wall Street Journal – Markets Send a Worrying Message About the Economy With hopes dashed that business-friendly reforms will get quick implementation in the U.S., investors are reverting to wagers on anemic growth So long as low growth means low interest rates and doesn’t threaten profits, it’s fine for shareholders. But with the economy… Continue reading Global Decline in Inflation Expectations
Bloomberg.com – Fed Intensifies Balance-Sheet Discussions With Market Players Talks aimed at gauging market impact of balance-sheet moves Consultations widened to include investment managers Federal Reserve staff, widening their outreach to investors in anticipation of a critical turning point in monetary policy, are seeking bond fund manager feedback on how the central bank should tailor… Continue reading More Talk About The Fed’s Balance Sheet
The Economist – The IMF nudges up its forecast for global growth In recent years the fund’s forecasts have proved over-optimistic APRIL is the cruellest month, breeding lilacs out of the dead land, and, in Washington, chirpy forecasts from the IMF that often prove a bit too chirpy. On April 18th the fund released its… Continue reading The IMF Releases Its Latest (Incorrect) Forecast
The Economist – Broken dealers: Corporate-bond markets need a reboot STOCKMARKETS are the public face of finance; indices like the S&P 500 are widely reported proxies for economic health. But they are dwarfed by the corporate-bond markets. In 2016 American equity issuance amounted to just under $200bn; for corporate bonds the total was $1.5trn. The… Continue reading The Future Of Corporate Bond Trading
Bloomberg.com – Mnuchin’s Talk of Tax Plan ‘Soon’ Stirs Markets and Skeptics Challenges seen in finding path to permanent overhaul End-of-year goal for finishing legislation draws questions Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin sent U.S. stock prices to a daytime high Thursday when he said the Trump administration will produce an ambitious plan to overhaul the U.S. tax… Continue reading Measuring The Trump Agenda
Bloomberg.com – French Election Shocker: Pollsters Baffled by Four-Way Race ‘Unprecedented’ close battle makes polling more difficult Victories of Sarkozy in 2007, Hollande in 2012 seen by polls It’s a challenge for French pollsters, who have a near-perfect record in forecasting the vote share for the top five finishers in the first rounds in 2007… Continue reading The French Vote Sunday
MarketWatch.com – John Coumarianos: Bonds now are more dangerous than you think The problem is that according to a recent paper by Boston asset manager Grantham, Mayo, van Oterloo (GMO), the main Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Index — and bond funds that track it — is riskier than it has been in a long time. That’s… Continue reading More On High Duration
Bloomberg.com – Goldman Says Ignore the Technical, Savor the Fundamental on Oil Bank says recent selloff in prices driven by technical reasons Goldman sees pace of U.S. inventory declines as encouraging Goldman Sachs Group Inc. says there’s no fundamental evidence in the oil market to justify this week’s selloff in prices. The bank finds the pace… Continue reading More Bullishness On Oil
Forbes – Martin Fridson: Going Outside The Box Is Not Active Management Active managers are working overtime to defend their value proposition in the face of massive capital flows into index funds. Some of their arguments stand up. This article examines one that does not. The takeaway is that only bona fide active management justifies… Continue reading What’s Next For Active Management?
Bloomberg.com – Paul Tudor Jones Says U.S. Stocks Should ‘Terrify’ Janet Yellen Says U.S. market cap to GDP ratio highest since 2000 Stocks could rise higher after next month’s French election Billionaire investor Paul Tudor Jones has a message for Janet Yellen and investors: Be very afraid. The legendary macro trader says that years of low… Continue reading Famous Managers Worried About Stocks
The Economist – Buttonwood: Markets worry more about political turmoil than autocracy The response to Turkey’s referendum result is the latest example THE VICTORY of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey’s president, in a referendum on April 16th is seen by many observers as a worrying step on the road to autocracy. The vote handed Mr Erdogan… Continue reading Does The Bond Market Prefer Dictators?