Project Syndicate – Martin Feldstein: Inconvenient Truths About the US Trade Deficit The United States has a trade deficit of about $450 billion, or 2.5% of GDP. That means that Americans import $450 billion of goods and services more than they export to the rest of the world. What explains the enormous US deficit year after… Continue reading The U.S. Trade Deficit And Globalization
The Wall Street Journal – Trump Administration Plans to Impose 20% Tariff on Canadian Softwood-Lumber Imports The Trump administration is taking retaliatory action against Canada over a decades-old trade dispute, moving to impose a 20% tariff on softwood lumber that is typically used to build single-family homes, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said Monday in an interview.… Continue reading A U.S. Trade War With Canada?
Bloomberg Business – There’s a Huge Disagreement Between Bonds and Stocks Markets are taking sides when it comes to the direction of the U.S. economy. In the green corner are stocks. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index is just 0.2 percent away from a record high reached in March on bets that Donald Trump’s administration will… Continue reading The Great Divergence Between Stocks And Bonds
Bloomberg.com – Noah Smith: Cracking the Mystery of Labor’s Falling Share of GDP Economists are very worried about the decline in labor’s share of U.S. national income. One reason they’re concerned is because when less of an economy’s wealth flows to workers, it exacerbates inequality and increases the risk of social instability. But another reason is… Continue reading Labor And Q1 2017 GDP Expectations
The Financial Times – Martin Wolf: An upswing in the world economy is not sustained growth The question is whether politics will give the necessary support to long-term recovery The world economy is improving. The question is how strong and long-lasting this improvement will be. The recovery could disappoint, last for a time or mark the… Continue reading The World Economy And Politics
Bloomberg Business – Einhorn’s Greenlight Warns of Bubble With Tax Reform Prospects Fading Stock market valuations have become divorced from reality as the likelihood of tax policy changes to drive company earnings has slipped, according to David Einhorn’s Greenlight Capital. “The bulls explain that traditional valuation metrics no longer apply to certain stocks,” the New York-based firm… Continue reading Einhorn Gives His Opinion On Tax Reform
Great guest on CNBC earlier pic.twitter.com/cB1ql5ir2N — Rudolf E. Havenstein (@RudyHavenstein) April 25, 2017
Crain’s Chicago Business – These stock-pickers continue to outsmart the indexes Touting stock-picking expertise in the face of an industry swing toward index-investing takes a certain amount of guts. But glance at graphs charting the performance of Harris Associates funds, and you understand why they’re sticking to stock-picking. Returns for all seven Harris funds since… Continue reading Can Active Managers Still Win The AUM Derby?
PIMCO – Bonds Are Different: Active Versus Passive Management in 12 Points Opinions in the active-passive investment debate have drifted poles apart over recent years. We revisit this discussion by contrasting equity and bonds. We look at performance numbers and find that, unlike their stock counterparts, active bond mutual funds have largely outperformed their median passive… Continue reading Active Managers Begging for Higher Interest Rates
The Financial Times – Why shrinking the Fed balance sheet may have an easing effect Federal Reserve policy makers have recently started discussing when to start gradually reducing their $4.5tn balance sheet. Minutes of their March meeting suggest “that a change to the Committee’s reinvestment policy would likely be appropriate later this year.” This is a… Continue reading Is A Shrinking Fed Balance Sheet Actually Stimulative?
Bloomberg Business – World’s Oldest Central Bank Is Closer to Ending Bond Purchases The Swedish central bank could soon declare victory in its fight to revive inflation. The Riksbank will on Thursday keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at minus 0.5 percent, according to all 25 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The board is also unlikely this… Continue reading Sweden Ending QE?
Bloomberg View – Charles Lieberman: Investors Underestimating the Economy and the Fed The best argument in support of underemployment focuses on “prime aged” adults between 25 and 54, where the ratio of employed to population has also declined. Indeed, there is a real problem evident in this data, but it’s more of a social issue than… Continue reading Investors’ View Of The Fed