- Bloomberg – Global Growth Is Peaking—But Not Petering Out
World growth peaking, not petering out, economists say
What’s happening, economists say, is that the broadest period of world growth since 2010 is peaking at an elevated level, not petering out. And the driver of the expansion is shifting to a fiscally juiced U.S. economy from a slowing Europe and Japan. But they acknowledge that their forecasts of another year or more of solid economic activity have become more uncertain after a soggy start to 2018, an outbreak of trade tensions and a ratcheting up of concern over Syria. “If you had talked to me two months ago, I would have said there are upside risks,” to global growth, said Ethan Harris, head of global economics research at Bank of America Merrill Lynch in New York. “Now I’m seeing downside risks.”
- Bloomberg – Goldman Sachs Says You Must Own Commodities in These Tense Times
Geopolitical conflicts seen raising risk of supply disruptions
The case for owning commodities has rarely been stronger, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. With raw materials rallying on escalating political tensions across the globe and economic growth remaining strong, the bank’s analysts including Jeffrey Currie doubled down on their “overweight” recommendation. They reiterated a view that commodities will yield returns of 10 percent over the next 12 months, according to an April 12 note. The Bloomberg Commodity Index is up more than 2.5 percent this week, the most in two months. Another raw materials gauge, the S&P GSCI Index, has rallied over 5 percent this week to levels last seen in 2014.