The French Elections

  • CBS News – 60 Minutes: France’s Marine Le Pen says she’s not waging a religious war
    “Everyone has the right to practice their religion, to worship as they choose,” the French presidential candidate says. “My war is against Islamic fundamentalism.”
    We begin tonight with a story about a populist politician who rails against free trade, wants to get tougher on immigration, is skeptical of NATO and sympathetic to Russia. We’re talking about a woman named Marine Le Pen, the candidate in France’s upcoming presidential election who’s shocked the political establishment with her meteoric rise, shocked because the name Le Pen has long been associated with anti-Semitism and racism in Europe.  Her party, the National Front, used to be on the fringes of French politics, but in recent years Marine Le Pen has given it a makeover and she’s now riding a wave of populist anger sweeping the West with Britain’s vote to leave the European Union and the election of President Trump. And just like Mr. Trump’s rise, the rise of Marine Le Pen is turning conventional political wisdom on its head.

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In this extra video, French political journalist Thierry Arnaud argues that a Le Pen victory means the end of the Euro/EU.

The chart below shows the latest betting on the French election. Recall that we view the betting markets as a type of real-time poll. They tell us what the consensus thinks, not what will happen.

The chart shows a lot of volatility with the “left-wing populist” Macron recently surging. The election is April 23. If no candidate gets more than 50% of the vote, the top two will face off on May 7.

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