Newsclips
What’s Going on in Japan?
February 5, 2026
Japanese yields have gone vertical and the yen's appreciation might have been the cause of January's market moves.
Japanese yields have gone vertical and the yen's appreciation might have been the cause of January's market moves.
The Commitments of Traders report enables investors to track changes in positions among various groups of traders/investors.
Slowing payrolls and massive revisions might have more to do with collapsing population growth than a slowing economy. This is because the border is closed. Cutting rates to stimulate job growth will only lead to more inflation and exacerbate the...
Unlike previous cycles, retail investors hold a much larger sway over markets. Who are retail traders?
Retail investors have become a dominant market force and have successfully piled into equity markets this year despite professional money managers' uncertainty. How are these retail investors trading?
Quantifying retail traders' share of equity market volume reveals the group has become a dominant market force.
What is happening in the CDS market and why is the debt ceiling a critical factor in widening spreads?
CPI came in much higher than expectations. Traders now see a roughly 50/50 chance the Fed remains on hold through the September meeting.
The Fed believes controlling inflation expectations is critical to returning to its 2% target. However, most measures of inflation expectations are becoming unanchored. If the Fed continues ignoring this, the bond market's reaction will worsen.
Differentiating 'allocator' ETF flows from 'trader' ETF flows
The TIPS market and consumer surveys expect higher inflation levels in 2025. The bond market is responding with higher yields even though the Fed is cutting rates and sees more rate cuts into 2025.
Weather and strikes have muddied the payroll report's economic signaling. We will have to wait for revisions. The unemployment rate was not muddied, pointing to some strength in the labor market.