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November 18, 2004
November 2004 Presentation Package Presentation package used in a conference call on November 18, 2004.
Our Research
Sample Our Reports, Presentations, & Market Insights
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November 10, 2004
Should We Fret About the Dollar? The United States began its life by holding certain truths to be self-evident. Despite the beliefs held fervently by what often feels to be a majority of financial market commentators that deficits are wicked and...
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September 29, 2004
How Will Foreigners React to Fannie Mae’s Problems? Because of Fannie Mae’s recent accounting problems, they may be forced to slow the growth of their mortgage portfolio. This would mean they would be issuing fewer agency securities and,...
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August 20, 2004
Is Crude Oil In A New Bubble Or A New Reality? The cash market price of West Texas Intermediate, the benchmark for the NYMEX contract, has risen more than 45% since the start of the year. This has led many to nominate the crude oil market for...
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August 19, 2004
A Review of Leverage Measures in the Bond Market There is still a record amount of leverage in the bond market. The size of the repo and futures markets are still near their record highs, and the Commitment of Traders data shows Commercial and...
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July 16, 2004
Inflation Watch Update The attached tables update inflation rates through June 2004. New to the report this month are tables and charts on the Personal Consumption Expenditure Indexes along with a look at how they compare to the CPI statistics.
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June 16, 2004
U.S. Treasury’s International Capital Statistics Update In last month’s TIC Report, we took a look at foreign buying of U.S. Treasuries. We pointed out that Japan alone accounts for almost 60% of all foreign buying of these securities....
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May 18, 2004
A Review of Leverage Measures in the Bond Market If one examines measures of leverage in the bond market, they all give the same answer – the bond market still has a record amount of leverage. The size of the repo and futures market is still...
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May 14, 2004
Inflation Watch Update The attached tables update inflation rates through April 2004. Also, does the market believe a secular change in inflation is upon us?
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March 12, 2004
Understanding Convexity And Its Role In The Market Convexity traders started putting downward pressure on interest rates last Friday and have been active ever since. Further, the convexity trade could be as big as it has ever been (save last July)....
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March 1, 2004
Mutual Fund Flows Update Currently, we estimate the public’s unrealized profits in equity mutual funds at $690 billion. In February 2003, investors had unrealized profits of only $12 billion . So how did they manage to make another $678 billion...
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February 19, 2004
U.S. Treasury’s International Capital Statistics Update In 2003, the press has widely touted the fact that foreigners’ net purchases of U.S. Treasury Notes and Bonds was at an all-time high. Less talked about is the fact that foreigners...