Sample Our Reports, Presentations, & Market Insights
Does Commodity Indexation Distort Futures Markets? A subtle reason why commodity prices may not be reflective only of individual supply/demand balances and inflationary expectations is the changing nature of commodity futures markets themselves....
Is Convexity An Issue? Given the tight ranges in mortgage coupons and the fact that interest rates are moving through the heart of these ranges, the current 50 basis point rise in yields is having a bigger impact on the duration of the mortgage index...
Crude Oil’s Selective Impact On Stock Groups The impact of crude oil prices on relative stock market group performance can be quantified as a beta, or relative volatility measure. This in turn can be combined with an assessment of stock market...
Mutual Fund Flows Update Total flows into foreign oriented mutual funds are poised to overtake total flows into domestic oriented mutual funds. Given mutual fund investors’ well known history for investing in a sector at exactly the wrong time,...
Is It Really A Conundrum? A transcript of the conference call on February 24, 2005
January Total Return Review: The Bull Flattener Does Matter! The attached tables update the total returns through January. January 2005 was unusual for its total return potential on a bullet-barbell trade within the context of a bullish flattening of...
Mutual Fund Seasonality: Villain or Culprit? While mutual fund inflows for both stocks and bonds have an identifiable seasonality, simple reliance on averages obscures valuable information. It is the trend of seasonality over time that is important...
U.S. Treasury’s International Capital Statistics Update Record Treasury Inflows And Outflows In November This month’s data illustrates that “foreigners” are not a monolith, they do not all act in concert. While this may seem...
Who Isn’t Looking For Rates To Rise? Today the Wall Street Journal published its semi-annual forecasting survey of economists. The overwhelming consensus of the 55 economists surveyed was for higher 10-year interest rates by June 30, 2005.
Mutual Fund Flows Update Tables updated through November 30, 2004 with data released December 30, 2004. Comments on Stock Funds, Bond Funds and Hybrid Funds, and the public’s break-even level. Currently, we estimate the public’s...
Commodity Investing Considerations A transcript of the conference call on December 22, 2004.
A Perspective On The TIC Data The U.S. Treasury’s monthly release of the International Capital Statistics (TIC) report is garnering increasing attention in the financial media. This is understandable given the widening current account deficit...