Sample Our Reports, Presentations, & Market Insights
An Inversion Is Not Unthinkable Not only is a yield curve inversion both conceivable and likely in the present circumstances, we can map how it will unfold from past inversions. The curve’s maximum inversion will occur when the federal funds...
Petroleum Spreads Are Signal, Inventory Is Noise The weekly focus on petroleum inventory data is misplaced. The industry spreads, an admittedly more arcane set of data, provide the signal on which we should focus. These are still supportive of high...
The State of the Hedge Fund Marketplace Conference Presentation Package.
Outlook For Interest Rates The Yield Curve, Fed Policy And Credit Spreads General Presentation Package.
Inflation Watch Update The attached tables update inflation rates through August 2005. Also, a look at how Core CPI may be affected by rising rental costs due to Hurricane Katrina.
Hurricane Perspective The events of Katrina may encourage the Federal Reserve to abandon its measured pace of rate hikes and reverse course to provide sufficient liquidity in the banking system. The historic precedents of the panics of 1873 and 1907...
Who Is Getting “Screwed”, Mr. Berlusconi? With Italian elections due in the first half of 2006 and weaker economic data streaming on-line through year-end, debate about breaking from the euro will intensify. Whether Italy is better-off...
Where Was The Damage From Higher Crude Oil? Higher crude oil prices have been accompanied by stable inflationary expectations and long-term interest rates, declining credit spreads, a flattening yield curve and a stronger economy. Are we better off...
June Total Return Review: Is General Motors In Your Portfolio? The attached tables update the total returns through June. A look at the effect General Motors bonds had on the Merrill High Yield Master II Index and the Merrill Investment Grade...
Inflation Watch Update The attached tables update inflation rates through May 2005. Also, note our comments with special attention to Housing and Owners’ Equivalent Rent inflation statistics. We believe the next great secular trend in inflation...
Crude Prices And Inventory – How Do They Relate? While economic intuition, some empirical statistical evidence, and simplistic headlines argue for a perfectly inverse relationship between US crude oil inventories and crude oil futures prices,...
Understanding the Problems in Credit/CDS Wall Street’s forensic scientists are out in full force for the post-mortem on this past week’s events in the credit and Credit Default Swap (CDS) markets. A number of conference calls have been...