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April 13, 2006
When Sentiment Fails We have argued that when a sentiment indicator fails, it is still useful information. Typically the market is undergoing a “transition in trend.”
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April 12, 2006
Revisiting Gold Gold has risen in the absence of dollar weakness and in the face of lower expected inflation relative to holding costs. It continues to be a self-fulfilling bull market, weak in comparison to those for base metals, that fortunately...
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March 20, 2006
Operating in a Flat Yield Environment Presentation to the ACLI Conference, Naples Florida.
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March 15, 2006
U.S. Treasury’s International Capital Statistics Update We have argued for years there is no long-term relationship between capital flows and movements in the dollar. We can argue a rather different point now: The level and course of the dollar...
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March 3, 2006
The Yen Carry Does Not Drive U.S. Note Yields An increase in Japanese short-term rates will not end the profitability of the yen carry trade. Actions in both American and Japanese yield curves and in the yen option market indicate insurance is being...
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February 9, 2006
Historical Market Performance Under Various Deflation/Inflation Scenarios In this study, we look at how the markets perform under various deflation/inflation scenarios. This study stretches as far back as 1801 and covers stocks, “real”...
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February 6, 2006
Thoughts On Private Equity Funds Investors from around the globe are pouring capital into private equity at an unprecedented rate, making private equity the current choice among “alternative” investments. The bulk of this capital is...
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February 3, 2006
Commitments of Traders Update/Analysis Statistics cover the CoT report for January 31. Further charts and comments include Federal Funds Futures: Large Speculators Stop Trying Russell 2000 Futures: Speculators Are Not Following The Trend Swiss Franc...
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January 25, 2006
Charts of the Week Topics Covered This Week Include: Official Institutions Buy Fewer Treasuries Flight From Quality In The Corporate World? Bond Returns Changed After Bernanke Appointment Bond Doubters Worn Out Dial M2 For Money. M3 Is No Longer In Service Germans Replace Angst With Konfidenz U.S. – Europe Money Market Rate Spreads The Euro… Continue reading Untitled
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January 12, 2006
The Myth Of The January Indicator Why won’t this idea go the way of the Super Bowl indicator, which has incorrectly predicted the market five of the last eight years thus lost its sex appeal? Because the track record of the first week and all...
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December 30, 2005
Mutual Fund Flows Update Tables updated through November 30, 2005 with data released December 29, 2005. Comments on Stock Funds, Bond Funds and Hybrid Funds, and the public’s break-even level.
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December 16, 2005
Hedge Fund of Funds: Death of a Salesman As with Arthur Miller’s book, Death of a Salesman, the struggle with reality versus illusion eventually brings about the downfall to the story’s main character. The financial press has been looking...