Sample Our Reports, Presentations, & Market Insights
The Financial Times – Diverging US economic data raise questions over ‘Trump bump’ Gap between hard numbers and buoyant mood of companies and consumers is widening Since his inauguration, Donald Trump has enthusiastically trumpeted surging...
Comment The NFIB’s Uncertainty Index reported today for March remains well above its highest since prior to Trump’s election. However, the bond markets’ lack of volatility may be more a result of increased certainty over future...
CNN/Money – Consumer confidence soars under Trump. Here’s what it means It’s also worth pointing out that the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index surged right after last November’s election as well — to...
The Financial Times – Global surveys or hard data – which are the fake news? In conclusion, we believe that the hard data in the US are understating activity growth in that economy, and consequently in the official GDP series for the global...
The Wall Street Journal – This Is a Dangerous Time to Own Emerging Markets Some worry a recent buying spree has resulted in lofty valuations as geopolitical tensions rise A crack is forming in the emerging-market resurgence. Almost $60 billion...
Macro Musings – James Bullard on Life as a Fed Bank President and Monetary Policy in 2017 In this week’s episode, Jim Bullard, the president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, joins the show to discuss his work as a Federal...
The Wall Street Journal – Economists React to the March Jobs Report: ‘Mostly Just Weather-Related Noise’ What economists and analysts said about Friday’s jobs report from the Labor Department The disappointing 98,000 increase in...
The Financial Times – US earnings season sees play between hard and soft economic data Signs are promising despite divergence in consumer confidence versus unemployment A handful of big banks led by JPMorgan this week kicked off one of...
Bloomberg Business – Fed June Hike Odds Below 50% After Inflation Expectations Tumble Traders are pulling back from bets the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in June as inflation expectations crumble. The odds of a hike have fallen...
Comment Last week we showed how the size of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet could be converted into basis point hikes or cuts. We concluded that the Fed’s bloated balance sheet, combined with a nominal funds rate of 0.75%, pushes...
Bloomberg Business – Bond Traders Stare Down Short Squeeze as Yields Test Key Levels Bond bears beware — the risk is building that Treasury yields go even lower. With yields across maturities reaching the lowest levels since November,...
Questions/Answers Mark asks: “Updating our outlook for crude oil for the end of the year?” Answer: I hinted at that a little bit before. The consensus opinion and I had this in Newsclips yesterday. As a matter of fact, one of the...