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Miscellaneous Charts
May 17, 2017
Merger Arbitrage (Human) vs Algo Hedge Fund Returns: The two charts below show the ends of the spectrum. The first chart shows the “algo and bot” driven hedge funds are doing poorly relative to the S&P 500 (blue). The second chart shows arguably a human-based activity, merger arbitrage. Of the more than 30 categories HFR… Continue reading Miscellaneous...
Markets
May 17, 2017
A look at S&P 500 Fundamentals. Selling volatility through leveraged ETFs has fallen out of favor this month. The past 20 days have seen $218 million flow out of short volatility ETFs and $241 million flow into leveraged long volatility ETFs. The short volatility trade has… Continue reading Markets
Politics
May 17, 2017
President’s Approval Comparision: The black line on the bottom is of this interactive chat is Trump’s approval rating. While he has the worst approval rating for the first 115 days, he has been trending sideways since the week after he took office. So, nothing has changed. Is this about to change?
Central Banks
May 17, 2017
The probability of a Fed hike in June falls to 83%. Will The Fed Respond To economic data missing expectations Since Mid-April?
Economics
May 17, 2017
S&P 500 Better Follows Soft Data than Hard Data. Industrial Production jumps In April. Citi vs Bloomberg U.S. Economic Surprise indexes:
Protected: The Fed Focuses On The Short-Term And Models
May 9, 2017
There is no excerpt because this is a protected post.
Understanding Our Interactive Commitment of Traders Report
May 9, 2017
Comment In our latest webcast, Jim Bianco offers a quick explanation of our new interactive Commitment of Traders report. We believe it to be the most comprehensive interactive report on this data available anywhere.
Earnings Update – A Great Week!
May 1, 2017
View PDF The Wall Street Journal – U.S. Stocks End Month Higher, Buoyed by Earnings The S&P 500 is within about half a percentage point of all-time highs and ends the week up 1.5% U.S. stocks ended the month higher, boosted by strong...
Bond Funds Outperform During Rising Inflation Expectations
May 1, 2017
Bloomberg – Bond Traders’ Inflation Bets Have New Life, Just in Time for Fed BlackRock, GSAM warn against complacency on yields, inflation Bond traders demonstrated this week that for all the doubts about the Trump trade, wagers on...
Libya Supply Back Online, Wildcatters Drill On
May 1, 2017
Bloomberg – Oil Price Optimism Wears Off as Texas Wildcatters Drill On Money managers slash WTI net-long position by most in 6 weeks The relentless drilling ramp-up in America’s top shale plays is making investors more skeptical that an oil...
Ultra-Long Bonds
May 1, 2017
The Financial Times – Trump administration’s ultra-long bond talk faces scepticism Meeting this week will examine demand for debt maturing well beyond 30-year limit The Trump administration’s interest in issuing the US government’s first...