Who Owns The Equity Market?
September 27, 2017
The Federal Reserve recently updated its Flow of Funds data through Q2 2017. Below we highlight some of the data covering the equity markets. Our complete collection of charts can be found here.
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Real Estate In The U.S.
September 27, 2017
The Federal Reserve recently updated its Flow of Funds data through Q2 2017. Below we highlight some of the data covering the real estate markets. Our complete collection of charts can be found here.
Ranking EM by Opportunities for Innovation
September 27, 2017
We have aggregated a series of metrics assessing business innovation, regulatory environment, energy access, and renewable energies. Data sources range from The World Bank to mining social media and search trends. Higher index values indicate better conditions for economic growth in the new world of technology and renewables.
A Look At Housing
September 27, 2017
The first three charts below are updated through August 2017. The Case-Shiller chart is updated through July 2017.
A Long-Term History Of Yields
September 27, 2017
What to Expect From Balance Sheet Normalization
September 20, 2017
Handout, mp3 replay and webcast replay for our conference call titled What to Expect From Balance Sheet Normalization on September 21, 2017. The handout can be found here (starts with the second post). Mp3 replay can be heard below: Webcast...
The Mechanics of Balance Sheet Normalization
September 20, 2017
Comment For Treasuries the cap will be $6 billion per month initially and will increase in steps of $6 billion at three-month intervals over 12 months until it reaches $30 billion per month. For agency MBS the cap will be $4 billion per month...
Growing Risks from Fed’s Focus on Financial Conditions
September 20, 2017
The chart below shows the Goldman Sachs U.S. Financial Conditions Index with bands indicating prior Fed tightening campaigns. The sustained loosening of financial conditions is unique to this tightening campaign. Driven in large part by...
Balance Sheet Reduction, Who Else Will Join the Chorus?
September 20, 2017
Comment The great unknown is when other central banks will join the chorus. Hawkish rhetoric is on the rise outside U.S. borders. But, action speaks louder than words… The direction of equity returns have remained dictated by economic growth,...
U.S. Inflation Expectations Rebounding with Economic Surprises
September 20, 2017
Summary U.S. inflation expectations should continue to rebound in the event economic data surprises (beats) make a triumphant return. History suggests TIPS breakevens widen with great frequency after a period of extreme data misses. Comment...
Consumer Behavior Not Yet Reflecting Stronger Wages/Inflation
September 20, 2017
Summary Stronger gains in inflation are being found near technology hubs like San Francisco, likely where job markets and wages are improving most. Consumer demand for discretionary goods and services have yet to rebound as much as non-discretionary,...
What Next From Central Banks?
August 3, 2017
Comment At the beginning of the year, the Wall Street’s consensus was for rates to go higher. The question was “when will 10-year yields hit 3%?”, not if. Predictably rates have gone the other way and are lower now than the...