Sample Our Reports, Presentations, & Market Insights
Handout, mp3 replay and webcast replay for our conference call titled What to Expect From Balance Sheet Normalization on September 21, 2017. The handout can be found here (starts with the second post). Mp3 replay can be heard below: Webcast...
Comment For Treasuries the cap will be $6 billion per month initially and will increase in steps of $6 billion at three-month intervals over 12 months until it reaches $30 billion per month. For agency MBS the cap will be $4 billion per month...
The chart below shows the Goldman Sachs U.S. Financial Conditions Index with bands indicating prior Fed tightening campaigns. The sustained loosening of financial conditions is unique to this tightening campaign. Driven in large part by...
Comment The great unknown is when other central banks will join the chorus. Hawkish rhetoric is on the rise outside U.S. borders. But, action speaks louder than words… The direction of equity returns have remained dictated by economic growth,...
Summary U.S. inflation expectations should continue to rebound in the event economic data surprises (beats) make a triumphant return. History suggests TIPS breakevens widen with great frequency after a period of extreme data misses. Comment...
Summary Stronger gains in inflation are being found near technology hubs like San Francisco, likely where job markets and wages are improving most. Consumer demand for discretionary goods and services have yet to rebound as much as non-discretionary,...
Comment At the beginning of the year, the Wall Street’s consensus was for rates to go higher. The question was “when will 10-year yields hit 3%?”, not if. Predictably rates have gone the other way and are lower now than the...
The Wall Street Journal – Inflation Tame in June, Complicating Fed’s Rate Decision Officials have been expecting a pickup in prices as the economy improves, but it isn’t appearing Some Fed officials have expressed concern in recent weeks...
Summary A quick look at large cap value equity performance so far this year suggests a challenging time for value stocks. But this is an incomplete picture and performance among smaller cap value stocks has been very strong. We note that...
The Financial Times – Seven charts that show how the developed world is losing its edge What is happening to the world economy? Here are some answers, in seven charts. They reveal a world undergoing profound changes. The most important...
OPEN U.S. Treasury’s International Capital Statistics Update Tables and comments detailing foreign investment through May 31, 2017 with data released on July 18, 2017. This month, we take a look at foreign investors net purchases of U.S....
A decent year in stocks. As the table below shows, the stock market is having a decent year. Large cap stocks leading the way. As the next chart shows, large cap stocks (blue) are leading the way as small cap stocks (red) lag badly. Market Cap weighted beats equal weight. Another way to… Continue reading 2017 Stock Market Total Returns