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Powell and gang are expected to have muted responses to financial market turmoil, unlike their recent brethren. The rise of inflation as the Federal Reserve's main focus over financial stability is a very important development, implying the 'Fed put'...
Bill issuance and repatriation are offering a potentially short-term boost to the Libor / OIS spread. The onus going forward will be on inflation rebounding and economic growth remaining stable to keep the Federal Reserve from driving the target rate...
Originally posted on December 27, 2017. Sign up for a free trial at the bottom of this page to read our current research. Summary In this webcast, we look at the poor productivity results in the United States and over ideas for why...
Originally posted on February 14, 2018. Sign up for a free trial at the bottom of this page to read our current research. Bloomberg – Credit Markets Are Stuck Playing Game of Dealers’ Choice Willingness to buy debt ‘clearly being...
Transitions to data misses and below-average data changes have historically been most prone to higher risk asset volatility and drawdowns. Slowing growth would pose a major problem for central banks like the ECB and BoJ contemplating an end to...
Our estimates for the reversal rate (or point of pain) resides near 150 bps, indicating additional hikes will continue to tighten financial conditions and hamper the Federal Reserve's ability to fulfill hopes for at least three hikes in 2018.
Investors are no longer able to confidently hedge equity exposure using long-end U.S. Treasuries, causing many to lower risk exposure.
Short investors who misinterpreted large net outflows from U.S. high yield ETFs could be caught offsides.
Investors are now in the 'put up or shut up' phase by demanding realized inflation and wage growth to build more inflation and hawkish action into safe and risk assets. Consumer trends have mildly softened to begin 2018, making upcoming personal...
Higher yields and wider spreads may be appealing enough for some credit market investors to begin extending duration.
Leveraged loans will have a harder time sustaining outperformance over high yield in the next few weeks.
Equity and HY investors should benefit from over-weighting lower beta, less cyclical sectors