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The chart below shows Citigroup data change indices by region since 2015. These indices measure the relation of current releases to one-year averages. The Eurozone is leading a return to below=average growth with nearly all other regions...
The top panel in the chart below shows news trends of “uncertainty” for each central bank. We calculate percentiles of news trends, meaning higher toward 100% implies greater uncertainty. The bottom panel shows the average percentile...
In a March 4 Italian election, the anti-establishment/Euroskeptic parties did well. Two of them, Five Star and the League attempted to form a government and name Giuseppe Conte as the new Prime Minister. Over the weekend Italy’s...
Emerging markets are being rattled by a rising U.S. dollar and end to global synchronized growth. Equities in East Asia and Europe appear susceptible to further drawdowns. On the flip side, South American economic growth remains mostly rosy, favoring...
An end to global synchronized growth poses risks for lop-sided short positioning in long-end U.S. Treasuries. The Federal Reserve and markets are pricing in very little uncertainty, but news trends indicate uncertainty over central bank policies are...
Distress in Argentina is the latest issue dragging down emerging market performance in Latin America. Resilient economic growth and stable ETF flows may help some LatAm sovereigns outperform.
We are not getting excited about U.S. 10-year yields hitting 3.0%. Slowing economic growth will likely keep sovereign yields from racing higher, even if inflation begins to percolate. Concerted global economic growth has ended with data changes...
Dollar strength and rising Treasury yields are pressuring emerging market currencies tied to the carry trade. A unique advantage amid rising China / U.S. trade tensions and superior regional growth favor Brazil and Latin American over southeast Asian...
Concerted economic growth is threatening to end with data misses now a global concern. We have a line in the sand at 60% of economies growing above one-year averages. A drop below (currently 67%) would sustain higher volatility and produce larger...
Stable Treasury yields and improving risk appetite have seen U.S. credit investors begin to boost exposure again.
Financial markets are unfortunately suffering from a circular reference due to group-think and herd mentality. We use the information and ideas from 'the group' as a heuristic to form our own opinions. The world has become exponentially more...