Markets
Long-Term Outlook: P/E Ratio Back to 1881
June 6, 2018
A look the S&P 500 P/E ratio back to 1881.
Our Research
Sample Our Reports, Presentations, & Market Insights
Markets
Consumer Anxiety Low, but Spending and Credit Trends Slowing
June 5, 2018
Consumer searches (Google) indicate low anxiety, but deteriorating spending, credit, and business formation. Our nowcast for Q2 GDP resides at 3.12% year-over-year, below similar forecasts by the Atlanta and New York Fed.
Markets
Will Volcker Rule Rollback Save Financials?
June 5, 2018
Many are hoping the roll-back of the Volcker rule will provide the financial sector with a much-needed boost. It may have much wider implications.
Markets
U.S. Real Yields Stuck at Range Highs, Blame Slowing Global Growth
June 4, 2018
Blame slowing global growth for still low U.S. Treasury term premium and real yields. The U.S. may be growing at a moderately strong rate, but economists and bond investors are still very hesitant to join the chorus of optimism found within nearly...
Central Banks
Fed on Track Means No Relief for Emerging Markets
June 1, 2018
Emerging market equities will find no relief from the recent drop in Fed tightening expectations. Lael Brainard's remarks Thursday indicate the Fed is on track for 2-3 more rate hikes this year.
Markets
Consumer Credit Concerns on the Rise
May 31, 2018
Credit card delinquencies across the top 100 banks look poised to rise given languishing consumer search trends. We identify which states are more susceptible to rising interest rates and exposed to credit concerns.
Conference Call
Conference Call Replay – Contagion Risks on the Rise
May 30, 2018
A replay of our May 31, 2018 conference call.
Markets
Data Change and Google Search Trends
May 30, 2018
The chart below shows Citigroup data change indices by region since 2015. These indices measure the relation of current releases to one-year averages. The Eurozone is leading a return to below=average growth with nearly all other regions...
Markets
Fed Policy/Word Counts
May 30, 2018
Markets
Peripheral Central Bank Uncertainty
May 30, 2018
The top panel in the chart below shows news trends of “uncertainty” for each central bank. We calculate percentiles of news trends, meaning higher toward 100% implies greater uncertainty. The bottom panel shows the average percentile...
Markets
Does Italy Pose A Contagion Risk?
May 30, 2018
In a March 4 Italian election, the anti-establishment/Euroskeptic parties did well. Two of them, Five Star and the League attempted to form a government and name Giuseppe Conte as the new Prime Minister. Over the weekend Italy’s...
Markets
Latin America Attractive, Other EM Troubled by Rising U.S. Dollar and...
May 10, 2018
Emerging markets are being rattled by a rising U.S. dollar and end to global synchronized growth. Equities in East Asia and Europe appear susceptible to further drawdowns. On the flip side, South American economic growth remains mostly rosy, favoring...