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Creating a diversified portfolio is harder than ever in a period of positive correlations among nearly all major asset class returns. A brief focus on rising inflation has faded with attention now turning to the convergence in economic growth between...
Events in Washington yesterday will be a factor in the midterm elections. Given our polarized nature, the Kavanaugh hearing will only influence a small percentage of voters. These voters will determine the outcome of the midterm elections.
Inflation expectations are knocking on the ceiling, threatening to finally break out above the best levels of 2017. But, long-end yields have tended to drop in the days following past hikes.
We have a very hard time believing core inflation will break high enough from 2.0% to warrant the Federal Reserve taking the target rate above the estimated long-term neutral rate at approximately 3.0%. Markets beginning to believe the target rate...
Treasury yields challenging range highs have credit market investors shifting their exposure to financial sector credits. Recent tightening in longer-dated bank spreads may be just the beginning in inflation expectations push rates higher.
Financial markets are braced for a hawkish statement from the Fed as it pushes financial markets to expect more rate hikes in 2019. Will higher rates be a windfall for the financial sector?
Financial leverage continues to exceed long-term averages, meaning rising U.S. 10-year real yields above 1.0% could impair near and current so-called zombie companies. However, economic momentum overtaking inflation would likely reduce this risk....
U.S. politics is the most polarized it has been since at least the Civil War, and this simply reflects the divergence in opinions among the public. All indications are the midterm election results will make this even more extreme, not less.
The great showdown between the Fed and markets over the path of inflation intensifies. Markets will not move toward Fed expectations for five hikes in the next twelve months until inflation expectations break out to the upside.
Retailing and technology industries are rich to fair value estimates, but consumer services look apt to play catch-up and outperform in the months ahead. Search trends for 'going out' are surging heading into the fall of 2018.
Rate hikes in Turkey might be a shot in the arm for emerging markets at a potent time. Global economic growth is at a potential inflection point and the ties between risk markets and industrial metals are the tightest in years.
Major hurricanes are rarely market events. We look at the performance of 10-year yields, the S&P 500, TIPS breakeven spreads and property & casualty insurers.