Interest Rates Research by Steven Zeng at Deutsche Bank that argues the yield curve needs to be adjusted for the current low rate environment. As Zeng says: We believe today’s interest rate environment severely limits the effectiveness of the existing model. To give some context, plugging in a… Continue reading Interest Rates And The Fed
The Financial Times – (June 29, 2017) End of cheap money leaves central bankers lost for words Avoiding ‘taper tantrum’ requires meticulous communications European central bankers learnt this week that any move towards normality in monetary policy will require meticulous communication amid jittery financial markets that have long gorged on the abundance of extremely cheap money.… Continue reading The Importance Of Central Banks
Alhambra Investments – BOND ROUT!!! Nothing ever goes in a straight line The problem is, however, largely one of time. At some point, the economy that “should be” has to be recognized for what it always was – a fantasy devotion to economics that was never established in real world operation. When this last happened in… Continue reading Bond Rout?! Nah, Not Yet
Comment On FRIDAY, July 14, 2017 at 9 AM CT (10 AM ET, 7 AM PT and 15:00 BST) Bianco Research, in conjunction with Arbor Research & Trading, will be hosting a webcast/teleconference moderated by Jim Bianco. Join us Friday as we discuss the recent rise in interest rates, the role of central banks and positioning… Continue reading Webcast Friday (please note the date change): What’s Next For Interest Rates After Their Recent Rise?
Bloomberg – Yellen Leaves Markets With the Wrong Impression It would be a mistake to interpret the Fed Chair’s comments as a dovish turn that puts in doubt the expected policy path. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s prepared testimony for her semi-annual report to Congress made clear that central bankers are struggling to understand the recent downward… Continue reading Federal Reserve Showing Dampened Hawkish Rhetoric
Below is our new CoT interactive report. It allows users to change parameters, markets, dates, and measures. Note that this report has six tabs along the top in blue. We believe it to be the most comprehensive interactive report on this data available anywhere. Large Speculator versus Leverage Trader The CoT report categories futures… Continue reading Large Speculator versus Leverage Trader
Marketwatch – Scared of tech stocks? Health-care shares are cheaper — and rallying Some investors are growing concerned over the seemingly endless bull market in stocks, which is being powered by technology companies. They may want to explore health-care shares, whose price-to-earnings valuations have declined over the past two years even as their prices have risen… Continue reading ETF Investors Still Optimistic About Health Care
Wall Street Journal – Bank Earnings Are Coming: Five Things to Watch Calm markets, the Fed and lighter lending are among the factors seen influencing second-quarter results The Federal Reserve’s decision to raise short-term interest rates in June, the fourth rate increase since December 2015, should boost banks’ lending income. The rates banks charge on credit… Continue reading U.S. Banking Sector Lagging Despite Steeper Curve
Bloomberg.com – If Janet Yellen Is Headed for the Exit, Who’s Next Leading Fed? Fed chair acknowledges she may exit when term ends in February Warsh, Cohn, Taylor seen among possible successors as chair Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s appearance before a congressional committee on Wednesday had, at times, the feel of a retirement send-off. “Do… Continue reading More On Yellen’s Future
The Wall Street Journal – Yellen: Inflation Should Rebound, but Fed Could Alter Policy if Softness Persists Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen, faced with a recent, puzzling slowdown in global inflation, said she expects the forces holding down consumer prices to fade in the months ahead, allowing the central bank to stick to its plans for… Continue reading Yellen Acknowledges Soft Inflation Data
The Wall Street Journal – Draghi May Address Future of ECB Stimulus at Jackson Hole The future of the ECB’s bond-buying program is the biggest question hanging over global markets European Central Bank President Mario Draghi is scheduled to address the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole conference in August for the first time in three years, according… Continue reading Will Draghi Give Anothger Historic Jackson Hole Speech?