Bloomberg Business – Yellen Says Opioid Use Is Tied to Declining Labor Participation Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen, making her most expansive remarks on an opioid epidemic that’s ravaging American communities, indicated the problem is so pervasive it is holding back the nation’s labor market. “I do think it is related to declining labor force… Continue reading Millennials Choose Drugs & Video Games Over A Job
The Wall Street Journal – Yellen: Premature to Conclude Inflation Trend Is Falling Well Short of Target Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen said Thursday a strong labor market and rising prices of imported goods supported her expectation that a recent downturn in inflation would prove transitory. In raising interest rates last month and penciling in… Continue reading Yellen Walks Back Comments On Inflation & Another Financial Crash
The Financial Times – Fed ticks boring box so far with unwind of $4.5tn balance sheet The Fed this summer announced its plans to trim its balance sheet by reducing the reinvestment of maturing securities in its portfolio through a series of gradually rising caps. For Treasuries, the cap will start at $6bn a… Continue reading More On Reducing The Fed’s Balance Sheet
The Economist – How to kill a corporate zombie There is a lot more to the productivity puzzle than just the nature of insolvency regimes; weak productivity is a big concern in Britain, for example. It seems clear that a squeeze on real wages in recent years has meant that some companies have been happy to… Continue reading More On Corporate Zombies
The Financial Times – Yellen signals Fed may relax crisis-era bank safety rule Janet Yellen has given the strongest signal yet that regulators are planning to relax a contentious financial safety standard for big banks that executives have complained could perversely encourage them to take more risk. Custody banks including State Street and Bank of… Continue reading Fed Considers Easing Certain Capital Leverage Requirements
Bloomberg Markets – No Uncertain Terms: What Really Makes People Nervous Is Change Given all the recent turmoil in Washington, it’s no wonder that Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen told lawmakers on Thursday that uncertainty about what the government is going to do is “quite high at the moment.” One small problem: the data don’t seem… Continue reading Measuring Uncertainty
The Wall Street Journal – Forecasters Lower Economic Outlook Amid Congressional Gridlock Growth forecasts for the last three quarters of 2017 are all down from May. Forecasts for growth in 2018 were unchanged at 2.4%, but the average forecast for 2019 dropped to 1.9%, the first time the year’s outlook has dipped under 2%.… Continue reading Economists Expect Sub 2% Growth In 2019
Bloomberg Gadfly – Lisa Abramowicz: Junk Bonds Work Without a Net In the leveraged-loan market, nearly three-quarters of the debt is “covenant lite” after three years of record issuance, Moody’s noted in May. That means a growing number of bond and loan investors are forfeiting their right to prevent companies from, say, borrowing a lot… Continue reading Junk Bonds
MarketWatch – Rex Nutting: The Fed needs to keep a watch out for inflation, master forecaster says The Federal Reserve can’t be certain about when inflation will begin to heat up, but the central bank is pretty sure that it will start bubbling up if the unemployment rate continues to fall, said master forecaster Jim… Continue reading Why The Fed Needs To Worry About Inflation
The Financial Times – Cohn in the frame to lead Fed as Trump looks beyond economists As Gary Cohn, the US president’s top economic adviser, helps lead the hunt for a new Federal Reserve chair, the precedent provided by George W Bush’s search for a running mate is looming in the minds of some close… Continue reading The Search For The Next Fed Chair
Handout, mp3 replay and webcast replay for our conference call titled What’s Next For Interest Rates After Their Recent Rise on July 14, 2017. A transcript of the Q&A can be found here. The handout can be found here (starts with the second post). Mp3 replay can be heard below: Webcast replay below: