The charts below show total returns since February 11, 2016, the day stocks and crude oil both bottomed. As the blue line in the chart below shows, the energy sector has gained 20.58% since February 11, 2016. The information technology sector is up 61.25% overall and semiconductor equipment is up an… Continue reading Stock Sector Returns Since February 11, 2016
The dark grey line below shows 10-year yields. The various colored lines show economists’ quarter-end forecasts for 10-year yields. This is the median forecast taken from roughly 70 economists, updated daily. Note that all forecasts are higher than current yields, meaning the forecast is always bearish. Also, note that the forecasts only get higher in… Continue reading Bearish Bond Forecasts Remain
The Bloomberg (Barclays) Treasury index is up 0.83% since February 11, 2016. The Bloomberg (Barclays) High Yield index is up 31.12%. View any of the Bloomberg (Barclays) fixed income indices by using the interactive chart below.
The Bloomberg Commodity index is up 16.44% since crude oil bottomed at $26 on February 11, 2016. The energy sector (blue line) is up 24.77% and crude oil (brown line below) is up 85.65%. For all the other sub-groups, see this interactive chart.
The odds of a Fed rate hike at the September meeting are currently at 0% while the odds of a hike at the December meeting are only 25%.
FT Alphaville – Brainard’s framing challenge Brainard’s argument confronts a framing challenge. “The economy and financial markets are in bad shape and we should prevent them worsening” is an easier sell than “the economy is fine but could be much better”, especially given the dogmatic fear of asset bubbles and of future blame for falling behind… Continue reading Neutral Rate Likely Much Lower Than Fed Believes
The Financial Times – Fed’s Brainard urges caution on rates over low inflation America’s stubbornly low inflation readings will be a central focus of debate over US Federal Reserve policy at the central bank’s meeting this month, with one senior policymaker using a speech on Tuesday to set out the case for treading carefully before lifting… Continue reading Brainard: The Fed Got Inflation Wrong
Reuters – Florida insurers shares tumble as Hurricane Irma looms Shares of Florida home insurers, including Heritage Insurance Holdings, tumbled on Tuesday and many extended losses later in the day as Hurricane Irma appeared set to hit Florida on Saturday, causing investors to brace for losses. HCI Group shares posted their biggest-ever one-day percentage drop, falling 20.0… Continue reading Insurance Stocks Try to Weather Two Major Storms
The Hill – Kudlow: Trump ‘absolutely committed’ to tax cuts The economic analyst also offered his thoughts on who could be the next chair of the Federal Reserve in the wake of current Chairwoman Janet Yellen and White House economic adviser Gary Cohn’s critical comments about Trump. “Since Yellen seemed to attack Trump about regulation, deregulating,… Continue reading Warsh Now Leading For Next Fed Chair
Bloomberg View – Mohamed A. El-Erian: What the ECB Will and Won’t Do This Week With all this in play, it is not surprising that the ECB is keen to retain as much policy flexibility as possible. Yet this is not a free good, particularly when it comes to market conditioning and responses. In the environment of… Continue reading All Eyes On The ECB
MarketWatch – Bitcoin, Ether and other cryptocurrencies may be seeing the beginning of the end Those speculating on cyber currencies have now received warnings from the financial regulators of the world’s two biggest economies. This looks very much like something coordinated. Regulators do not want to ban something without any warning. If they did, they’d risk hurting many… Continue reading More On Crypto Regulation In China