Investopedia – Bank Stocks Nearing Intermediate Breakdowns Bank stocks have struggled since topping out in March, hampered by a persistent downturn in commercial lending as well as low inflation that has forced the Federal Reserve to delay its aggressive rate hike schedule. Sector funds have now dropped into intermediate support, signaling possible breakdowns that bring into… Continue reading Banks Back to the Brink
Bloomberg – Fischer to Step Down in Mid-October as Fed Vacancies Mount Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer has resigned effective in mid-October, giving President Donald Trump scope to start reshaping the leadership of the U.S. central bank sooner than expected and clouding the longer-term outlook for monetary policy…Fischer’s departure will leave four of the… Continue reading Fischer’s Resignation Could Hurt Yellen’s Odds Of Remaining Fed Chair…
The Wall Street Journal – President Trump Unlikely to Nominate Gary Cohn to Become Fed Chairman President Donald Trump is unlikely to nominate Gary Cohn, his top economic adviser, as the next Federal Reserve chairman, according to people familiar with the president’s thinking, adding to the uncertainty over the U.S. central bank’s leadership and policies… Continue reading …Although Don’t Assume This Clears The Path For Cohn
Bloomberg View – The Bond Market’s Latest Rally Is No Knee-Jerk Reaction Unlike many prior squeezes in U.S. Treasuries, there are no signs of wretched excess. Unlike many previous squeezes in U.S. Treasuries, this latest move — which has pushed yields on 10-year notes to the lowest of the year — is important because it came… Continue reading 10-Year Yields Continue Marching Lower
The Financial Times – How to spot companies at risk of earnings manipulation We all know why companies manipulate their earnings…The tricky part is to work out who is manipulating…New research from a group of academics at the University of Southern California, the University of Houston, the University of Hong Kong and Cambridge university’s Judge… Continue reading How To Spot A Company That Is Cooking Its Books
The Financial Times – Central banks are waking up to the threat of cryptocurrencies Behind the scenes, there is growing uneasiness about how disruptive technology may be to the banking and payments system. Over the summer both the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision and the World Economic Forum put out lengthy papers on their concerns… Continue reading Concerns Over Cryptocurrencies
The Wall Street Journal – Opioid Epidemic May Be Keeping Prime-Age Americans Out of the Workforce New research suggests a significant portion of the post-1990s decline in labor-force participation among Americans in their prime working years could be linked to the opioid epidemic. Conducted by Princeton University economist Alan Krueger, the study found that a… Continue reading Drugs & The Workforce
Pipeline ETFs continue to see steady inflows despite recent disruptions related to Hurricane Harvey. Total assets in the four U.S. based pipeline ETFs increased to $10.6 billion in August. Net 5-day flows have exceeded $50 million for nearly all of August. Year-to-date, the average pipeline ETF is up 6% in addition to dividends… Continue reading Pipeline ETFs Still Attracting Inflows
The BOE and FOMC still hold claim to the most hawkish rhetoric. The Bank of Canada’s hawkish bias was realized with a hike (Sep 6th).
Yesterday’s Treasury auction marked the first time the 1-month T-bill was set to mature in the window considered to be at risk for a government shutdown/default. As the chart below shows, yields jumped over 30 bps from last week to 1.30% late Tuesday as investors shunned the auction. The last time 1-month T-bill yields reached… Continue reading 1-Month T-Bill Yields Whipsaw Around Debt Ceiling News
Earlier this week we offered our annual warning in avoiding stocks during September. While the S&P 500 is in the midst of a bad month from a seasonal perspective, crude oil is about to enter a bad stretch of several months on a seasonal basis. The chart below defaults to show the monthly return of… Continue reading Another Look At Seasonality