The Financial Times – The Fed is treading a fine line on monetary tightening Inflation will determine how bumpy the ride will be Is a surge in inflation a significant threat to sustained recovery? The likely answer is: no. But the proposition is no longer absurd, as it was when Kevin Warsh, then a governor of… Continue reading Policy Mistake Fears Keeping Long-end Yields Low
Comment Demographics and technological disruptions have been cited as key drivers of lower growth and inflation. Long-end sovereign yields across developed economies reflect these weaker trajectories. However emerging markets’ seemingly greater dispersion in yields is explainable by changing (and improving) demographics. The interactive chart below shows the median age of the population versus 30-year sovereign… Continue reading Growing Elderly Populations Causing Structural Shift in Inflation and Long-end Sovereign Yields
The Financial Times – US investors primed for blow to earnings US earnings growth slowed dramatically in the third quarter from a breakneck pace in the first half, according to analysts’ expectations, with some companies feeling pressure from hurricanes that battered Texas, Florida and Puerto Rico. Wall Street analysts are forecasting an increase of just… Continue reading Earnings Season Starts This Week
Bloomberg – Bill Ackman Has His Pick for the Next Fed Chair Bill Ackman has his bet for the next head of the U.S. Federal Reserve: Kevin Warsh. President Donald Trump is certain to implement change at the top of the Fed, Ackman said in an interview Monday, speculating that Trump isn’t the type of person… Continue reading Everyone Has An Opinion On The Next Fed Chair
Bloomberg – Mohamed El-Erian: Guarded Optimism About the Global Economy The ongoing synchronized pick-up in growth has taken a long time to materialize, and is occurring in the context of unusually subdued financial volatility. As encouraging as this is, it is way too early to declare “mission accomplished.” The recovery still falls short in delivering… Continue reading The Global Economy Is On The Upswing
The Wall Street Journal – Hurricanes Tend to Dent Jobs Data, but Leave Little Lasting Imprint A seven-year streak of monthly job growth has been snapped, but there’s no reason to panic. Analysis of similar post-hurricane reports from the recent past suggests that Harvey and Irma’s labor-market fallout won’t be lasting. For the three most… Continue reading More On The Hurricanes’ Effect On Jobs Data
Bloomberg View – Mark Whitehouse: Yellen Has Done a Great Job on Jobs The economy has come a long way under her management. The Fed has two main goals: Get unemployment as low as it can be, and keep prices rising at a steady, sustainable pace. When Yellen took office in February 2014, the economy was… Continue reading The Fed’s Employment Goal
The Financial Times – A decade in charts: US stocks prove their long-term value The old stock market adage that you should sell at the top and buy at the bottom might need to be revised. The US stock market hit a peak 10 years ago on October 9 2007, before starting to collapse during… Continue reading Stocks Outpace Major Asset Classes 10 Years After Crisis
The Financial Times – Financials power Wall St’s record run in past month Higher bond yields and prospect of less onerous regulation boost banks Financial stocks rose further this week building on a month-long rally sparked by higher US government bond yields and hopes for less onerous regulation. The sector gained nearly 1.4 per cent over… Continue reading Financial Stocks
MoneyBeat (WSJ Blog) – This October, Stocks Don’t Look Too Spooky MKM Partners says October is actually a rare time for the market to peak. Before 2007, you have to go back to 1989 to find the month when a year’s top occurred. “Markets that make a new high in October tend to see further strength… Continue reading Another Look At October Seasonality
Bloomberg – Is Gold Really a Good Hedge? Bridgewater Associates LP’s Ray Dalio suggested investors should hold 5 percent to 10 percent of their portfolios in gold to hedge against rising political risks. I’m a macro strategist who writes Bloomberg’s Macro Man column, and I found myself wondering: Is gold really an effective hedge in periods… Continue reading Does Gold Have A Place In Your Portfolio?