The Wall Street Journal – Belief in Inflation Is Strengthening Again Consumers and investors are once again starting to believe inflation will rise. The latest sign is a September survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, released Tuesday, which shows consumers expect annual inflation will be at 2.8% three years from now, up from 2.6% in… Continue reading Inflation Should Rebound, but Don’t Get Too Excited
Bloomberg – Illinois Wants to Borrow Big and They Will Pay Big It takes a lot to move the needle on a state’s net tax-supported debt, but that’s exactly what Illinois will be doing with its $6 billion multi-part general obligation bond sale, scheduled for the weeks of Oct. 16 and 23. The proceeds will be used to… Continue reading Demographics Matter to Muni Performance
Bloomberg – Too Much Central Bank Talk Means ‘Confusion Not Clarity’ Thomas Lustenberger and Enzo Rossi argue that increased central bank communication over the years has “created confusion rather than clarity” and hasn’t helped investors and academics improve their macroeconomic forecasts. That’s a rebuttal of the view that transparency helps central banks reduce market volatility and… Continue reading Transparency Does Not Equate To Clarity
MoneyBeat (WSJ Blog) – S&P’s Record Streak Produces Smallest Gains in Half a Century The S&P 500 is poised to end a streak that has a particularly bullish ring to it on Friday. The benchmark has finished at a record high for six straight sessions through Thursday, the first time in more than two decades… Continue reading A Look At Streaks
Comment Jim Bianco was on CNBC yesterday discussing Trump’s tax policy and earnings. To view the interview, click on the image above.
OPEN Investor Flows Dictated by the Rhythm of Economic Data Releases Webcast In our latest webcast, Ben Breitholtz takes a look at his post titled Investor Flows Dictated by the Rhythm of Economic Data Releases. We look at the economic release calendar by day of the month. We find a predictable pattern of economic… Continue reading Investor Flows Dictated by the Rhythm of Economic Data Releases Webcast
MoneyBeat (WSJ Blog) – ETF Trading Volume Slumps to Near Three-Year Lows Another signal of financial market tranquility: Daily turnover in exchange-traded products is plunging relative to the trading of single stocks. Daily trading volume in ETPs, a catch-all that includes both exchange-traded funds and notes, averaged $66 billion in September, well below the bull… Continue reading Another Sign Of How Quiet The Markets Are
The Financial Times – Central bankers face a crisis of confidence as models fail Central bankers usurped the titans of Wall Street as the masters of the universe almost a decade ago. They rescued the global economy from the financial crisis, flooding the world with cheap money. They used their powers effectively to get banks… Continue reading Doubting Central Banks And Their Models
CNBC – The contest for next Fed chair is coming down to two pretty different choices The contest for who will become the next head of the Federal Reserve appears to be coming down to two pretty different choices. In recent days, market participants have become more focused on former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh and… Continue reading The Race For Fed Chair
Bloomberg – FX Markets Are Stuck in Low-Volatility Quicksand With No Escape Currency markets are trapped by low volatility and only a fundamental break of historic proportions can shake them free. Foreign exchange trading has become significantly less responsive to shocks, and when currencies do react it typically isn’t long before they go calm again,… Continue reading Refuting The Notion That Volatility Is Mean-Reverting
Reuters – Bill Gross of Janus blames Fed for ‘fake markets’ Influential bond investor Bill Gross of Janus Henderson Investors said on Monday that financial markets are artificially compressed and capitalism distorted because of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s loose monetary policy. “I think we have fake markets,” Gross said at a Janus Henderson event. Investors… Continue reading Bill Gross Talks About Distorted Markets