Soft, survey-based data have provided quite the tailwind post-election. The chart below shows U.S. hard (blue) and soft (peach) data indices according to Citigroup. The bottoming in both indices in late August 2017 coincided with a rebound in FOMC rate hike timing from less than one to two hikes over the next twelve months. Equity… Continue reading The Case For Lower Rates?
Summary Increasing concentrations among tech-heavy players are having a deflationary impact. Businesses are unfortunately attempting to stay relevant and competitive in this world of tighter margins by choosing to not raise wages. Rising elderly populations across developed economies are only exacerbating this phenomenon. Comment The NFIB has surveyed small businesses about the biggest problems each… Continue reading The Deflationary Consequence of Industry Concentration
Bloomberg – Flat Yield Curve Could Be Supercharged If Key Marks Are Breached BMO eyes potential break of 200-day average at 2.31% “The broader information within the auction results suggests strong demand for the new 10-year, even at these levels, which is consistent with the flattening,” BMO’s Ian Lyngen said in an interview after the sale.… Continue reading “Treasury Curve Stamps Out Bank Rally” is locked Treasury Curve Stamps Out Bank Rally
The New York Times – Saudi Arabia Arrests 11 Princes, Including Billionaire Waleed bin Talal Saudi Arabia announced the arrest on Saturday night of the prominent billionaire investor Prince al-Waleed bin Talal, plus at least 10 other princes, four ministers and tens of former ministers. The announcement of the arrests was made over Al Arabiya, the… Continue reading Game Of Thrones: Saudi Arabia
Comment On November 9, 2017 at 9 AM CT (10 AM ET, 7 AM PT and 15:00 GMT), Bianco Research, in conjunction with Arbor Research & Trading, will be hosting a webinar/teleconference moderated by Jim Bianco. As is often the case with bull markets that are long in the tooth, many people doubt the ability… Continue reading Conference Call Thursday: Bull Markets Climb A Wall Of Worry
Increasing concentration among tech-heavy players are having a deflationary impact.
A late rotation is driving tech stocks in the U.S. The EM tech sector is having its best risk-on cycle since 2000.
Bloomberg View – Neil Dutta: Trump’s Policies Have Done Nothing for Stocks Earnings growth, not promises on deregulation, taxes or infrastucture, is responsible for most of the appreciation in equities. Decomposing stock returns over the last year, our analysis shows that earnings growth is responsible for most of the appreciation in equities. While analysts assessed… Continue reading Earnings Growth Is Driving Stocks Up, Not Trump
The Financial Times – US yield curve flattens further, hits new decade low The flattening of the yield curve suggests that investors are expecting growth and inflation to be muted in the future despite a persistent tightening of the labour market and generally upbeat data on the US and global economies. At the same time, the… Continue reading The Yield Curve Continues To Flatten
Bloomberg Markets – Copper Traders Are Making High-Flying Bets About the Future of the Metal The frenzy in the copper market is luring traders to take high-flying bets that prices are headed back toward a record. Call options wagering on copper climbing above $10,000 a metric ton by December 2018 have started trading during the past… Continue reading Betting On Copper