Newsclips
Who Says Stocks Are Climbing A Wall Of Worry?
November 9, 2017
The last time this group was more bullish was January 30, 1987!
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Short Volatility Fund Prices Rising Faster Than Outflows Webcast
November 9, 2017
In this webcast Jim discusses short-volatility funds.
Newsclips
Buy The Bubble
November 9, 2017
Bloomberg – In 2017, Investors Can Either Buy Bubbles or Be Left Far Behind The best way to crush the crowd in 2017? Buy the things everyone insisted would never keep going up. A portfolio stuffed with allegedly over-inflated assets would have returned more than 120 percent so far in 2017, trouncing the S&P 500… Continue reading Buy The Bubble
Newsclips
Emerging Market = Tech?
November 9, 2017
Bloomberg View – Nicolas Colas: The Emerging-Market Rally Is Really Just About Tech Shares How did EM become global market darlings? The answer is not in the old playbook of export-driven growth and rising middle classes. The real driver of performance is one U.S. investors will recognize quite readily. The MSCI EM Index is remarkably… Continue reading Emerging Market = Tech?
Newsclips
The Average Maturity Of U.S. Debt
November 9, 2017
Bloomberg – Treasury’s Surprise Debt-Maturity Move Eases Sting of Fed Unwind As the rest of Washington fixated on tax reform and a new Federal Reserve chair last week, the Treasury Department unveiled a borrowing strategy lacking fanfare but having potentially big implications for the bond market and the U.S. economy. In a step that could… Continue reading The Average Maturity Of U.S. Debt
Newsclips
Stock Market Breadth
November 9, 2017
This is another way to illustrate how narrow this rally has been this year.
Newsclips
Cartoons
November 9, 2017
Conference Calls
Bull Markets Climb A Wall Of Worry Conference Call Replay
November 8, 2017
Handout, mp3 replay and webcast replay for our conference call titled Bull Markets Climb A Wall Of Worry November 9, 2017. The handout can be found here (starts with the second post). Mp3 replay can be heard below: Webcast replay below:
Conference Calls
The Trump Trade Continues To Work
November 8, 2017
The next chart shows the percentage of major T.V. news discussions (CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox Business, CNN, MSNBC, and Fox News) concentrated on health care (gray), taxes (orange), and regulations (blue). The current risk-on environment has likely not been aided by hopes for health care or tax reform. Our models show the sub-industries of the… Continue reading The Trump Trade Continues To Work
Conference Calls
Earnings Driving Stocks
November 8, 2017
Through Friday, November 3, over 80% of S&P 500 companies reported Q3 2017 earnings. As the chart below shows, the beat rate for the 407 companies that have reported is 74%, just above the post-crisis average of 69% (black line). As the blue line in the chart below shows, Q3 growth is now expected to be… Continue reading Earnings Driving Stocks
Conference Calls
Risk-On Forever?
November 8, 2017
Summary The current risk-on cycle is nearing one of the longest in history. Deregulation and solid corporate earnings are helping overshadow tepid U.S. economic growth. U.S. Treasuries will likely continue to fixate on lower growth and inflation as opposed to equity markets still giddy over favorable soft, survey-based data. Comment The current risk-on environment has… Continue reading Risk-On Forever?
Conference Calls
Anatomy of a Risk-On Cycle
November 8, 2017
Comment Yesterday we highlighted that the current risk-on cycle has now persisted for 124 trading days, making it one of the longest risk-on phases since 2000. The chart below shows the S&P 500 along with the duration of risk-on/off cycles. We define these cycles using BofA ML’s Global Fund Flows and volumes across equities, credit,… Continue reading Anatomy of a Risk-On Cycle