Bloomberg – Bitcoin’s Split Personality Problem May Pop the Bubble Bitcoin spinoffs happen when there is a fork. Bitcoin is run by committee, and when it disagrees about rules governing bitcoins, a fork is announced and the currency is split in two. Everyone who thinks a change would be good can go down one road with… Continue reading Bitcoin Forks
Consensus Inc. conducts a weekly survey of over 100 futures traders and investment newsletter writers. They simply ask participants whether or not they would describe themselves as bullish on a number of markets. As the default chart below shows, 75% of respondents were bullish stocks as of November 10. Even by the extreme standards of… Continue reading Stock Sentiment Extremely Positive Even By Recent Standards
As the orange line below shows, negative-yielding debt has a better year-to-date total return than debt with positive yields.
It is not often that you will hear a politician brag about a sub-50% approval rating, but such are the times in which we live. As the chart below shows, the 46% approval rating reported by Rasmussen on November 12 was a bit of an outlier. In fact, the last time any single poll… Continue reading Trump Boasts Of His 46% Approval Rating
Yesterday the New York Fed released their quarterly report on household debt and credit for Q3 2017. Below are our updated charts. The first chart shows household debt and credit outstanding, scroll over it to view of the dollar amounts. The next chart shows total debt by delinquency status. The… Continue reading Household Debt And Credit Through Q3 2017
Over the last 20 years, the Bloomberg commodity index is up a paltry 6%, with the industrial metals leading the sub-groups, up 122% and the energy sub-group lagging, down 73%. When looking taking a deeper look at the energy sector, crude oil (green line below) is actually up 219% while natural gas… Continue reading Commodity Returns Over The Last 20 Years
The Bloomberg Treasury index is up 149% over since November 13, 1997. Long treasury (red line) is up 278% and intermediate Treasury (green line) is up 125%. The Bloomberg high yield index is up 274%. Use the interactive chart below to view additional fixed income returns.
The DJIA and SP 500 are both up 397% and 311%, respectively since November 13, 1997. Growth stocks are up 611% and value stocks are up 597%. Financials are up 154%. After outperforming the S&P 500 from 2004 – mid 2017, energy stock returns are now inline with the… Continue reading Stock Returns Over The Last 20 Years
Hyun Song Sin (BIS) sees central banks impairing market signals. We see ties to ultra-low vol ahead of more rate hikes.
Traders and economists are at odds over inflation expectations. Both can point to data in support of their views.