Bloomberg – Still Bullish After All These Years Two decades after its record peak, the CAPE ratio is flashing warning signs again. The S&P 500 has tripled since 2009. The CAPE ratio stands at 31.3 as of November, nearly double its long-term average of 16.8. It was only higher on the eve of the Great… Continue reading Stocks For The Long Run
OPEN Commitment of Traders Analysis For December 22, 2017 Webcast On December 22, 2017, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) released the Commitments of Traders (CoT) statistics for Tuesday, December 19, 2017. Click on the open button above for some charts and a few short webcasts noting some the data we found interesting from our new… Continue reading CoT Update – Charts of Interest
Below is the handout, mp3 replay and webcast replay of our conference call titled Five Themes To Watch In 2018. A transcript will be available on Tuesday. The handout can be found here (starts with the second post). The mp3 replay can be heard below: The webcast replay is below:
Financial sector ETFs were major beneficiaries of risk on flows since May, but have seen net outflows since December 12.
Summary The growth of social media and online gaming are potentially having a dampening impact on productivity. Companies may be inhibiting use of social media like Facebook and Instagram during work hours, but online gaming and Amazon remain quite popular. Comment Earlier this week we suggested productivity in the U.S. has been hampered by the… Continue reading Are We All Playing Games and Buying Stuff on Amazon During Our Work Day?
CNBC – Bitcoin sell-off could spark a market contagion, analyst warns Bitcoin rout could trigger contagion, strategist says If the price of bitcoin continues to drop, other markets could begin to feel the heat, according to Ron William, founder and principle market strategist at RW Market Advisory. Bitcoin was seen trading below a psychologically key mark of $13,000Friday, shaving… Continue reading Bitcoin Collapses
Comment Yesterday Jim Bianco guest-hosted Bloomberg Daybreak. In the two segments below, he discusses the yield curve and tech stocks. Bloomberg View – Mohamed El-Erian: Now Is Not The Time to Worry About the Yield Curve The flattening yield curve — that is, the narrowing in yields between longer-maturity government bonds and short-dated… Continue reading Talking Markets
Bloomberg View – Shelly Goldberg: How Blockchain Could Revolutionize Commodity Markets The technology has already been adopted for gold trading, but could be extended to other sectors in the asset class. Blockchain technology, which has already been adopted by gold traders, is starting to show the potential to transform other sectors of the global physical… Continue reading How Blockchain Could Change Markets
Bloomberg Business – An Inflation Breakout Would Be Worse for Markets Than a Depression The risk for 2018 is that consumer price growth stages a comeback, roiling investor portfolios and corporate profits, according to investors and strategists. The consequent return of higher real interest rates would imperil bullish market psychology more than you might think. “A significant… Continue reading Inflation And Markets
The Wall Street Journal – How the Cost of Rent Is Keeping Inflation in Check Rents are rising at the slowest pace in more than a year, a welcome development for consumers but another potential complication for Federal Reserve officials waiting for a pickup in inflation. A measure of what Americans are paying for rent… Continue reading Rent Inflation Slows
Bloomberg Gadfly – Nir Kaissar: The Ghost of Markets Past The so-called FAANG stocks — Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix and Google parent Alphabet — are fetching prices that would make the Nifty Fifty blush. Their average P/E ratio is a whopping 115, compared with 22.5 for the S&P 500. It’s not just the FAANGs. The average… Continue reading Are Markets Repeating 1972?