Reuters – China says diversifying FX reserves, warns report on U.S. bonds may be ‘fake’ China is diversifying its foreign exchange reserves in order to safeguard their value, the country’s currency regulator said on Thursday, while dismissing a media report the government is halting or reducing its purchases of U.S. debt. Bloomberg News reported on… Continue reading More On China’s Rethink Of Treasuries
MoneyBeat (WSJ Blog) – Stock Dividends Losing Allure as Rates Rise Dividends are so passe. A heated stock market rally combined with a sharp climb in benchmark interest rates this year is eroding the relative value of companies that pay out chunky dividends to their shareholders. Low interest rates over the past few years have boosted… Continue reading Investing In Dividend-Paying Stocks
MarketWatch – Caroline Baum: The Fed needs a better target, and then it needs to figure out how to hit it The introduction of the next “new new thing” — whether it be artificial intelligence or something as yet unimagined — may very well catapult the U.S. out of its slow potential-growth trajectory. It’s just… Continue reading Hitting The Fed’s Inflation Target
The Financial Times – US stock market enters CAPE Fear territory CAPE has been signalling an expensive market almost uninterruptedly since 2010. Consequently, there is a thriving industry of academics and investment management research departments in either knocking down CAPE, or adjusting it in various ways to show that markets are not that overvalued after… Continue reading Picking Apart CAPE
Bloomberg View – Ben Carlson: Prepare for the Next Bear Market in Stocks The stock market has been going gangbusters for a number of years, so it can be easy to forget that bear markets are still possible. These don’t come around on a set schedule, but over the past 70 years or so, they’ve… Continue reading Looking For The Next Bear Market
The Financial Times – Five things to look out for in US bank earnings Analysts will be keen to hear how banks plan to respond to the Trump administration’s overhaul of tax laws, completed late last month. Some banks have already announced one-off hits to profits, mainly connected to the revaluation of deferred tax assets,… Continue reading Keep An Eye On Repatriation Tax Charges
Reuters – South Korea plans to ban cryptocurrency trading, rattles market South Korea’s government said on Thursday it plans to ban cryptocurrency trading, sending bitcoin prices plummeting and throwing the virtual coin market into turmoil as the nation’s police and tax authorities raided local exchanges on alleged tax evasion. The clampdown in South Korea, a… Continue reading Asian Governments Continue To Fight Cryptocurrencies
This is terribly saddening. This gentleman has designed and produced a limited edition of 300 of these beautifully made commemorative #Brexit coins. So it’s deeply regrettable, but somehow entirely unsurprising, that it should have a spelling mistake on it (“independance”)… pic.twitter.com/bhLNhMwrgO — simon maginn (@simonmaginn) January 10, 2018
Handout, audio replay and webinar replay of our conference call titled Inflation, the Yield Curve and Earnings on January 11, 2018. The handout can be found here (starts with the second post). Audio replay can be heard below: Webinar replay below: Transcript: View PDF
Comment Q4 2017 earnings season get started later this week. Expectations are among the highest in the post-crisis period. Analyst Optimism The chart below shows an index of earnings guidance offered by companies. Its construction is noted on the chart. This measure is showing the most optimism since 2010. Bloomberg.com – Wall Street’s Rising Euphoria… Continue reading Q4 2017 Earnings Start This Week – A Blowout Quarter Is Expected
We believe inflation is the biggest question mark heading into 2018. In this webcast, we look at various metrics in determining which way inflation will go. The Fed And Inflation – Guessing Economists Are Disbelievers In Inflation Ever-Returning What Does The Data Say? The Market Is Pricing In More Inflation Talking Inflation The… Continue reading Is Inflation The Most Important Issue In 2018?
Those looking for a steepening yield curve are betting on worsening economic data in 2018.