Conference Calls
Is The Inflation Mindset Returning?
January 31, 2018
The correlation between volatility and inflation expectations is moving toward positive.
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Are Bearish Bond Forecasts Now Bad For Stocks?
January 31, 2018
Comment Yesterday we pointed out that an inflationary mindset may be returning to the markets: The correlation between volatility and inflation expectations is moving toward positive. This could be the leading edge of a secular shift from a deflationary mindset to an inflationary mindset. Such a shift would mean higher yields would coincide with lower… Continue reading Are Bearish Bond Forecasts Now Bad For Stocks?
Conference Calls
The Yield Curve
January 31, 2018
Newsclips
A Look At FOMC Policy Expectations For 2018
January 31, 2018
Stock returns throughout the year will alter the market's expectation for further hikes.
Newsclips
ETF Investors Fade the Vol Spike
January 31, 2018
Bloomberg – Start of 5% Pullback? VIX Curve Signals Stocks May Recover Soon Inverted VIX curve has preceded S&P 500 gains in past year Panic selling may be creeping up in the stock market, so much so that an options-based indicator is flashing a buy signal. The Cboe Volatility Index, a gauge of S&P 500 Index… Continue reading ETF Investors Fade the Vol Spike
Newsclips
Projections Diverge for Risk and Safe Assets Moving Forward
January 31, 2018
Summary The S&P 500 has been boosted as expected by continued growth in central bank balance sheets and concerted global economic growth. But, projections from here on out begin to diverge with the onus heavily on economic growth maintaining momentum and inflation remaining subdued. A drawdown of near 3% is possible in 2018 in the… Continue reading Projections Diverge for Risk and Safe Assets Moving Forward
Newsclips
Updating The Record Risk-On Cycle
January 31, 2018
Comment The last two days saw the stock market “correct.” As the chart below shows, the S&P 500 broke a streak of 112 trading days without a 1% down day (since August 17, 2017). This ties a similar streak that ended on June 12, 1985 for the longest streak without a 1% down day… Continue reading Updating The Record Risk-On Cycle
Newsclips
Are Bearish Bond Forecasts Now Bad For Stocks?
January 31, 2018
Comment Yesterday we pointed out that an inflationary mindset may be returning to the markets: The correlation between volatility and inflation expectations is moving toward positive. This could be the leading edge of a secular shift from a deflationary mindset to an inflationary mindset. Such a shift would mean higher yields would coincide with lower… Continue reading Are Bearish Bond Forecasts Now Bad For Stocks?
Newsclips
Monthly Fund Flows – Detailing Passive vs Active Flows
January 31, 2018
Comment The chart below shows the MSCI world stock market index in the top panel. The middle panel shows cumulative flows into open-ended mutual funds in blue and equity ETFs in red. The bottom panel shows the total assets of open-ended mutual funds in blue and equity ETFs in red. Flows into ETFs since… Continue reading Monthly Fund Flows – Detailing Passive vs Active Flows
Newsclips
The CNBC Fed Survey
January 31, 2018
View PDF CNBC – Fed will be forced to raise rates more rapidly than expected because of accelerating economy, survey says Wall Street is looking for more economic growth this year, boosted by recently adopted tax cuts, but also more interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. Respondents to the CNBC Fed Survey expect gross domestic… Continue reading The CNBC Fed Survey
Newsclips
Corporate Bond Issuance Slows
January 31, 2018
The Wall Street Journal – Bond Selloff Sends Ripples Through Corporate Debt Market Months of selling in government bonds are beginning to send ripples through the corporate debt market world-wide, nudging up borrowing costs for businesses and posing fresh risks to investors. Since early September, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note has climbed to 2.725% from around… Continue reading Corporate Bond Issuance Slows
Newsclips
The Fed’s Inflation Target and Price-Level Targeting
January 31, 2018
Bloomberg View – Ben Emons: When the Fed Talks Price-Level Targets, Markets Should Shudder Neither bonds nor equities are pricing in much of a premium for the prospect of faster inflation, increasing the risk of a correction. The difference between an inflation target and price-level targeting may seem like semantics, but they are very different.… Continue reading The Fed’s Inflation Target and Price-Level Targeting