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Newsclips

A Stock Split That Created A 16% Return – Because It Involved Bitcoin

February 1, 2018

MoneyBeat (WSJ Blog) – Investors Can’t Split Difference With Bitcoin To skeptics, the stock market has been partying lately like it’s 1999. Back then companies that put a dot-com in their names saw overnight double-digit percentage gains. These days it is blockchain or bitcoin. Now add another worrying sign: Investors already had been paying a… Continue reading A Stock Split That Created A 16% Return – Because It Involved Bitcoin

Newsclips

Chinese Capital Outflows Slow

February 1, 2018

MoneyBeat (WSJ Blog) – Beijing Chalks Up a Win In Its Fight Against Capital Outflows Beijing can declare mission accomplished in its battle to keep money at home–at least for now. A study to be released on Thursday by the Washington-based Institute of International Finance shows that net capital outflows from China reached $60 billion… Continue reading Chinese Capital Outflows Slow

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Newsclips

China Cooking Its Books

February 1, 2018

Bloomberg – China’s 2015 GDP Was Exaggerated By Fake Data, Analysis Shows China’s growth rate in 2015 was probably overstated by “a couple of percentage points,” according to new data analysis by Bloomberg Economics. Gross domestic product at the provincial level was consistently overstated between 2011 and 2015, calculations that cross-referenced energy consumption with output… Continue reading China Cooking Its Books

Newsclips

Yellen’s Legacy

February 1, 2018

The Wall Street Journal – Greg Ip: Long After Janet Yellen Leaves, Interest Rates Will Bear Her Mark Janet Yellen leaves a huge and largely unappreciated imprint on interest rates that will reverberate long after her last Federal Reserve policy meeting Wednesday. This isn’t because of the rate increases the Federal Reserve chairwoman engineered over… Continue reading Yellen’s Legacy

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Newsclips

Greenspan Sees Bubbles

February 1, 2018

Bloomberg – Former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan Sees Bubbles in Stocks and Bonds The man who made the term “irrational exuberance” famous says investors are at it again. “There are two bubbles: We have a stock market bubble, and we have a bond market bubble,” Alan Greenspan, 91, said Wednesday on Bloomberg Television with Tom… Continue reading Greenspan Sees Bubbles

Newsclips

Cartoons

February 1, 2018

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Conference Calls

Conference Call Replay – Inflation: Be Careful What You Wish For

January 31, 2018

The handout, audio replay and webinar replay of our February 1, 2018 conference call titled Inflation: Be Careful What You Wish For can be found below.  The handout can be found here (starts with the second post).   The audio replay can be heard below:   The webinar replay is below: View PDF

Conference Calls

Economic Surprises Waning, Just When Inflation Expectations Get Going

January 31, 2018

Summary Equity investors have reason to become jittery given moderating soft, survey-based and hard economic data, as well as rising expectations for inflation from both investors and economists. History suggests sideways-to-negative S&P 500 returns in the weeks ahead. However true shifts in both equities and U.S. Treasuries will not occur without realized rises in core… Continue reading Economic Surprises Waning, Just When Inflation Expectations Get Going

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Conference Calls

Economies Across The World Are Growing

January 31, 2018

The New York Times – Every One of the World’s Big Economies Is Now Growing A decade after the world descended into a devastating economic crisis, a key marker of revival has finally been achieved. Every major economy on earth is expanding at once, a synchronous wave of growth that is creating jobs, lifting fortunes… Continue reading Economies Across The World Are Growing

Conference Calls

An Earnings Update – The Great Quarter Continues

January 31, 2018

Summary So far 138 (28%) of the S&P 500 companies have reported Q4 2017 earnings for a growth rate of almost 13%. Full-year 2018 earnings estimates are approaching 19%. Combined with 2017 earnings, the growth rate over the two-year span is now estimated to be roughly 33%! This week we will get a slew of earnings so… Continue reading An Earnings Update – The Great Quarter Continues

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Conference Calls

Revenues Booming Alongside Earnings

January 31, 2018

Comment As the chart above shows, of the 139 companies that have reported Q4 2017 earnings thus far, 67% have beat on their revenue expectations. This is well above the post-crisis average of 47% (black line). We believe that analysts and companies do not game revenues in the same way they do earnings, so it will… Continue reading Revenues Booming Alongside Earnings

Conference Calls

A Look At FOMC Policy Expectations For 2018

January 31, 2018

Stock returns throughout the year will alter the market's expectation for further hikes.