CPI came in at expectations for the third month in a row, while core CPI came in slightly below estimates. None of this was enough to alter the longer-term thinking of fed funds traders, who continue to see the May FOMC meeting as the next decision point for the Federal Reserve.
Today's topics include looking back at what caused pandemic inflation surge, is a hike in the cards?, revisiting deglobalization, concentration risk, ECB will ease further as Eurozone growth slows, more Chinese liquidity injections, weather leads to declining oil supply, the worsening deficit, Goldman's Solomon cautious on economy, and more on Nvidia
The dollar has seen a strong rally since the weeks preceding the presidential election. What is driving this outperformance and can it continue?
Today's topics include previewing tomorrow's CPI report, stocks might be extra sensitive to tomorrow's CPI release, economists expect global inflation to persist, the days of lower rates are behind us, is a 5% ten-year yield a line in the sand?, the end to QT draws near, and small cap stocks don't like higher rates
Q4 2024 earnings season begins this week. Growth is expected to be well below recent quarters, however expectations for previous quarters were also underestimated before earnings season. Q4 growth may follow a similar trend.
Today's topics include explaining rising yields, the fiscal outlook, an eye on funding spreads, more on the labor market, Fed independence, the oil market, Europe's natural gas storages, a look back at Bitcoin ETFs' first year, and return to office pushback
Nonfarm payrolls grew by 256k jobs, beating even the highest Wall Street estimates. The case for rate cuts in 2025 took a hit today.
Today's topics include stocks versus higher yields, what's ahead for QT?, Fedspeak...lots of it, why are long-term yields rising?, corporate issuance stays hot, the trouble of funding governments with higher rates, mortgage rates & the housing market, the wrong type of rental supply, Nvidia: the most influential piece of everyone's portfolio, yen intervention?, and a unique solution to the housing market's problems