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January 17, 2025
In the latest installment of Talking Data, Alex discusses why the dollar has been surging and the outlook for 2025.
Today's topics include more on yesterday's inflation release, CPI was 0.002% away from rounding to 3.3% yesterday, uncertainty is the Fedspeak word of the day, another way to show stocks are overpriced, a shameless plug for active bond funds, the housing market, and BoJ set to hike rates
Inflation expectations are rising according to both market measures and public surveys.
Many government statistics are collected via surveys. As with political polls, the public is souring on answering them. Response rates continue to head lower.
It is becoming increasingly easy to find a sovereign yield of at least 4% across the world.
As foreign central banks and the Federal Reserve own a smaller portion of the U.S. Treasury market, price-sensitive buyers take on increased importance to bond price discovery.
Bloomberg's U.S. Pure Momentum Index returned 9.70% in 2024, the 2nd best year in the past two and a half decades.
For the last few decades the U.S. has been in a low interest rate environment where deficit spending would not cause major issues. A 40-year high in inflation and the higher rates that followed are stressing the country's finances.
A long-term look at the S&P 500's real earnings yield
Some interesting charts from our recent posts