Newsclips
All Eyes on Tomorrow’s Inflation Data
August 11, 2026
Commentary & analysis of selected stories on August 11, 2026
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Treasury Using Short-Term Tools for Long-Term Problems
August 10, 2026
Commentary & analysis of selected stories on August 10, 2026
Newsclips
A Labor Market at Equilibrium?
August 7, 2026
Commentary & analysis of selected stories on August 7, 2026
Focused Research
Measuring the Midterm Elections
August 6, 2026
It is common for the party out of power to gain in a midterm election. This election cycle isn't expected to be much different.
Newsclips
Previewing Payrolls
August 6, 2026
Commentary & analysis of selected stories on August 6, 2026
Conference Calls
Guidance on the Fed, the Economy, and Markets
August 5, 2026
A replay of our August 5, 2026 conference call.
Focused Research
Credit Markets Are Not Flashing Warning Signs
August 5, 2026
Credit spreads tightened in nine of twelve sectors over the past year. Yet twenty bonds drove nearly all the distress in high yield. The market isn't repricing credit. It's repricing a handful of balance sheets that funded the AI buildout.
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Treasury’s Forward Guidance
August 5, 2026
Commentary & analysis of selected stories on August 5, 2026
Focused Research
The End of Forward Guidance
August 4, 2026
Warsh isn't trying to make the Fed harder to read. He's trying to force the market to do its own homework again.
Newsclips
Currency Activism
August 4, 2026
Commentary & analysis of selected stories on August 4, 2026
Focused Research
Why the Fed Must Raise Rates!
August 3, 2026
For almost two years the Fed has been cutting and holding rates, and for almost two years yields have trended higher. The bond market has been rejecting Fed policy and can stop panicking when the Fed starts.
Newsclips
Lessons in Volatility
August 3, 2026
Commentary & analysis of selected stories on August 3, 2026