Conference Calls
U.S. Treasury Yields Most Reliant on Inflation Since Pre-crisis
February 14, 2018
Inflation and wage growth are showing nearly their largest contributions to U.S. Treasury yields since the financial crisis.
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Page 795 of 3385Conference Calls
Policy Not Responding To Equities
February 14, 2018
Bloomberg – Powell Suggests Fed to Go Ahead With Rate Hikes Despite Market Turmoil Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell suggested that the U.S. central bank would push ahead with gradual interest-rate increases even as it remains on the lookout for threats to the financial system in the wake of the recent stock market rout. “We are… Continue reading Policy Not Responding To Equities
Conference Calls
How far Is The Fed From “Tight?”
February 14, 2018
Volatility-sensitive equity strategies are suffering in the wake of heightened inflation fears and a pulling in of rate hike expectations.
Conference Calls
Do Central Banks Have The Wrong Policy?
February 14, 2018
At $16.4 trillion, these five central banks essentially own 33% of the sovereign bond market. Evidence that the collective central banks have been too easy can be seen in the chart below. Despite the Fed’s five rate hikes and an announced taper of its balance sheet, financial conditions recently set a new… Continue reading Do Central Banks Have The Wrong Policy?
Conference Calls
Projections Diverge for Risk and Safe Assets Moving Forward
February 14, 2018
Summary The S&P 500 has been boosted as expected by continued growth in central bank balance sheets and concerted global economic growth. But, projections from here on out begin to diverge with the onus heavily on economic growth maintaining momentum and inflation remaining subdued. A drawdown of near 3% is possible in 2018 in the… Continue reading Projections Diverge for Risk and Safe Assets Moving Forward
Conference Calls
Inflation and Central Bank Response in Chart of the S&P 500’s Drawdown Depth
February 14, 2018
Comment The chart below shows four scenarios run through a model trained on inflation, economic growth (hard/soft data), global balance sheet growth, and rate hike timing across the Fed, ECB, and BoE since 2006. Projections are produced for the next three months. The scenarios with both realized inflation and TIPS breakevens retreating produce the best… Continue reading Inflation and Central Bank Response in Chart of the S&P 500’s Drawdown Depth
Newsclips
Did the Risk-ON/OFF Fund Flow Dynamic Die Last Week?
February 14, 2018
The longest running 'risk-on' period according to global fund flows between risk and safe assets has now reached 191 consecutive days. How in the world can this be considering last week's equity smackdown? We need to realize the easy to explain and digestible mantra of 'risk-ON/OFF' flows broke last week.
Newsclips
Worries About Bond Market Liquidity
February 14, 2018
Bloomberg – Credit Markets Are Stuck Playing Game of Dealers’ Choice Willingness to buy debt ‘clearly being tested,’ BofA Says In credit markets, it’s dealers’ choice — for now. That means credit spreads are in the hands of market makers as selling pressure in investment-grade bonds refuses to fade, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Dealers… Continue reading Worries About Bond Market Liquidity
Newsclips
S&P 500 Now Controlled by a New Overlord, Term Premium
February 14, 2018
Bloomberg – Next Big Equity Pain Threshold Looms as Treasury Yield Nears 3% Yield of 3% can take the S&P 500 below 2,500: SocGen According to strategists at firms including Amundi and Societe Generale SA, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield climbing up into the 3 percent to 3.5 percent range would reach the “pain threshold” for… Continue reading S&P 500 Now Controlled by a New Overlord, Term Premium
Monthly Reports
Inflation Watch – Will Today’s CPI Beat Be The Straw That Broke The Equity Market’s Back?
February 14, 2018
Bloomberg – U.S. Consumer Prices Rise More Than Forecast on Apparel Costs U.S. consumer prices rose by more than projected in January as apparel costs jumped the most in nearly three decades, adding to signs of an inflation pickup that have roiled financial markets this month. The consumer price index rose 0.5 percent from the… Continue reading Inflation Watch – Will Today’s CPI Beat Be The Straw That Broke The Equity Market’s Back?
Newsclips
Timing The Fed Hikes
February 14, 2018
Bloomberg – Powell Suggests Fed to Go Ahead With Rate Hikes Despite Market Turmoil Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell suggested that the U.S. central bank would push ahead with gradual interest-rate increases even as it remains on the lookout for threats to the financial system in the wake of the recent stock market rout. “We… Continue reading Timing The Fed Hikes
Newsclips
Was The VIX Rigged?
February 14, 2018
The Wall Street Journal – Stock Market ‘Fear Index’ Faces Probe Financial Industry Regulatory Authority looking into whether bets were placed on S&P 500 options to influence VIX futures A U.S. regulator is looking into whether prices linked to the stock market’s widely watched “fear index” have been manipulated, according to people with knowledge of the… Continue reading Was The VIX Rigged?