Conference Calls
Conference Call Replay – Is The Fed Going Too Far In The Face Of A Cooling Economy?
April 4, 2018
A replay of our April 5, 2018 conference call.
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Reviewing Our Outlook
April 4, 2018
Regime Shift The Most Inflation In The Post-Crisis Period Forecasting the eventual rebound in inflation has become increasingly difficult, just ask the Federal Reserve. On the contrary, the error in estimating major economic releases like non-farm payrolls, durable goods, or industrial production have all tumbled along… Continue reading Reviewing Our Outlook
Conference Calls
It’s Time to Put Up or Shut Up
April 4, 2018
U.S. Treasury investors have built in a hefty premium for inflation, but are seemingly refusing to continue until inflation releases make a real push toward the Fed’s target of 2.0%. March 21, 2018 The chart below shows the spread of hawkish vs dovish words found within official Fed communications (speeches, minutes, and testimonies) on… Continue reading It’s Time to Put Up or Shut Up
Newsclips
Consumer Healthy, But Warts Remain
April 4, 2018
The consumer is healthy, but signs of a slack and deteriorating real estate interest will likely prevent core inflation from achieving the Fed's target of 2.0% in 2019.
Newsclips
Slowing Growth May Prompt Rotation into Health Care
April 4, 2018
Rotation into defensive sectors is likely to benefit healthcare, especially in emerging markets.
Newsclips
Politics And Markets
April 4, 2018
An update on Trump's approval rating and the generic ballot for the midterm elections
Newsclips
What We’re Reading
April 4, 2018
Today's topics include LIBOR's replacement, the trade war, China's economy, central bank policy and bond bears.
Newsclips
Cartoons
April 4, 2018
Newsclips
Surveys Continue to Expect Inflation, But When the Heck Will it Show Up?
April 3, 2018
Expectations for inflation in the U.S. are the highest post-crisis, but realized inflation has yet to show up. Many of these surveys have become coincidental-to-lagging indicators for prices and wages, making forecasting very difficult. Roughly 70% of the rise in U.S. 10-year note yields is attributable to hopes and dreams for inflation. But, bond investors will eventually shed their calm demeanor without expectations coming to fruition.
Newsclips
Crude Oil Waking Up to Slowing Growth
April 3, 2018
A look a the demand side of the global oil picture supports our expectation for stable-to-lower oil prices.
Newsclips
Global Concerted Growth on Shaky Ground
April 3, 2018
We fear investors and analysts are failing to acknowledge the recent slowing in economic data across the globe. The tailwinds of global concerted economic growth are fading, making defensive sectors (healthcare, utilities, and consumer staples) and stable yield generating investments like municipal bonds particularly attractive.
Fund Flows Update
Monthly Fund Flows – Detailing Passive and Active Flows
April 3, 2018
An update of mutual fund and ETF flows