Inflation expectations have been rebounding with a rally across industrial metals and energy. But, enthusiasm for higher sovereign yields are not yet reflecting deteriorating economic growth across the globe. Our outlook suggests a skew toward lower yields, not higher. The air has yet to come out of lofty survey expectations.
Weakening consumer balance sheets are a headwind for gold performance.
Today's topics include the Fed's inflation concerns, Fed independence, QE and QT, the Hong Kong dollar, OPEC, tighter financial conditions, Treasury issuance, currency manipulation and hedge fund performance.
U.S. high yield returns are oddly showing a negative correlation to the U.S. yield curve, unlike their equity brethren. History suggests high yield will snap back into line with equities, meaning potential exists for drawdowns nearing 6% in the months to come.
The Bank of Canada is emphasizing patience in gauging the response to improving trade tensions with the U.S. The more dovish stance is likely to temper Canadian dollar strength.
Expectations have been creeping higher for Fed hikes, but don't read too much into it just yet.
Today's topics include world debt, stock vs. bond market volatility, the art of stock picking, the dollar's role in foreign trade, crude oil supply issues, skepticism of Chinese data and the cost of a currency peg.
A quick glimpse at the ETF industry
Dark skies are on the horizon for Western Canadian oil.
Since 1939, the creation of service-providing jobs has outpaced that of goods-producing jobs almost ten to one.