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Concerted Global Growth is Over, Now What?!
April 24, 2018
We are not getting excited about U.S. 10-year yields hitting 3.0%. Slowing economic growth will likely keep sovereign yields from racing higher, even if inflation begins to percolate. Concerted global economic growth has ended with data changes detaching and the percentage of economies producing above-average growth nearing a drop below 60%. Defensive sectors and municipal bonds top our list of attractive investments.
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An Opportunity U.S. Shale Won’t Refuse
April 24, 2018
OPEC does its best to rationalize ongoing production cuts but has little control over the collapse in Venezuela or renewed sanctions against Iran. Rising oil prices are offering U.S shale producers an opportunity to hedge production for 2019 with positive cash flows. Slowing global growth and extreme bullish positioning raise the stakes for oil bulls betting on supply disruptions.
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Active Money Managers’ Existential Crisis
April 24, 2018
Just as active managers began to enjoy dispersion among S&P 500 stock returns near the end of 2017, correlations shot higher.
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What We’re Reading
April 24, 2018
Today's topics include trading in the last half hour of the day, QE vs. QT, crude oil supply/demand, ETFs, quantifying bubbles, profit margins, emerging markets and big trades in VIX futures.
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Cartoons
April 24, 2018
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Jim’s View: More On The Regime Change
April 23, 2018
In his inaugural edition of a new column, Jim discusses the regime shift in interest rates. The bond market is now focused on inflation rather than financial stability. Understanding this will prove vital as central banks embark on quantitative tightening in the years to come.
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Equity and Bond Investors Viewing Risks Very Differently
April 23, 2018
Bonds and equities are disconnected, with investors in each foreseeing risks very differently. Bond investors will remain calm as long as uncertainty over FOMC and ECB monetary policy stays very low. The Federal Reserve are enjoying the tailwinds of rising inflation expectations, but hope (surveys) and a commodities rebound will be on shaky ground in the event global economic growth continues to slow.
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Financials Fixated on the Yield Curve
April 23, 2018
Flattening in the Treasury curve is back in the headlines and the financial sector is in the spotlight as a result. Continued flattening and tighter financial conditions present serious threats to regional bank performance.
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Earnings Update – 40% of the S&P 500 Report This Coming Week
April 23, 2018
Only 16% (87) of S&P 500 companies have reported Q1 earnings so far. This coming week another 40% (200) will announce their quarterly results. So far the numbers are looking good, but this week's releases will provide a much better picture of the overall earnings season.
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What We’re Reading
April 23, 2018
Today's topics include rising yields, crude oil, the cost of index funds, the yield curve, Illinois's debt, the tech of the future, searching for the neutral rate, liquidity, female fund managers, the dollar's dominance and Amazon's effect on Wall Street.