Developed market growth has fallen below its one-year average but investors remain wary of longer-dated sovereigns. Investors preparing for slowing growth in the U.S. should watch the relative performance of non-cyclical sectors.
Today's topics include $70 crude oil, EM currencies, market volatility, bond trading, U.S. selling debt, the British pound, economic growth and the link between demography and inflation.
After February's rough patch, stocks have essentially meandered sideways. A comparison to past corrections off all-time highs shows stocks may still move lower from here. The Fed holds the key.
An end to global synchronized growth poses risks for lop-sided short positioning in long-end U.S. Treasuries. The Federal Reserve and markets are pricing in very little uncertainty, but news trends indicate uncertainty over central bank policies are indeed on the rise. Fair value models suggest U.S. 10-year yields are more so poised to fall than rise.
Consumer search traffic shows steadily declining interest in auto purchases. Slowing economic growth, tighter financial conditions and rising volatility all point toward lower prices.
Should the Fed create a "Fedcoin"?
Today's topics include housing optimism, surveys and inflation, the ECB, crude oil bullishness, public pensions, corporate bond issuance, Powell's comments on emerging markets and the Italian election.
Uncertainty over central bank tightening policies is finally hinting at a rise after shifting significantly lower since early 2017. We find news trends for "uncertainty" are nearing a key threshold historically synonymous with higher global financial stress.
Overflowing U.S. shale production is finding its way onto railcars as production exceeds pipeline capacity. Uncertainty about the Iranian deal has a May 12 expiration date.
An update on earnings season now that over 80% of companies have reported