Conference Calls
Conference Call Replay – Contagion Risks on the Rise
May 30, 2018
A replay of our May 31, 2018 conference call.
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Data Change and Google Search Trends
May 30, 2018
The chart below shows Citigroup data change indices by region since 2015. These indices measure the relation of current releases to one-year averages. The Eurozone is leading a return to below=average growth with nearly all other regions rolling over into the summer of 2018. Unfortunately, the Eurozone typically sees economic data changes peak… Continue reading Data Change and Google Search Trends
Conference Calls
Fed Policy/Word Counts
May 30, 2018
Conference Calls
Peripheral Central Bank Uncertainty
May 30, 2018
The top panel in the chart below shows news trends of “uncertainty” for each central bank. We calculate percentiles of news trends, meaning higher toward 100% implies greater uncertainty. The bottom panel shows the average percentile across all central banks currently rising toward 40%, which we believe is a key hurdle. The scatterplot… Continue reading Peripheral Central Bank Uncertainty
Conference Calls
Does Italy Pose A Contagion Risk?
May 30, 2018
In a March 4 Italian election, the anti-establishment/Euroskeptic parties did well. Two of them, Five Star and the League attempted to form a government and name Giuseppe Conte as the new Prime Minister. Over the weekend Italy’s President Mattarella rejected that attempt at a government and named a “caretaker” Prime Minister, a former IMF… Continue reading Does Italy Pose A Contagion Risk?
Newsclips
Inflation Expectations Continue to Steer Fed Policy
May 30, 2018
FOMC rate hike timing has become extremely sensitive to changes in TIPS breakevens (i.e. inflation expectations) in 2018. Yesterday's shellacking tore down inflation expectations, which have investors now looking to two, not three, hikes over the next 12 months.
Newsclips
Risk-Off Is Back – At Least For A Day
May 30, 2018
Fed funds futures have repriced the odds of hikes in September and December over concerns in Italy.
Newsclips
Dovish Hold Likely from Bank of Canada
May 30, 2018
Persistent infrastructure struggles and weakness in housing may delay the Bank of Canada's next rate hike.
Newsclips
Record Earnings Are Not Propelling Stocks Higher
May 30, 2018
One would be hard-pressed to find a better stretch of earnings, revenue and guidance data than we have seen in the last few quarters. However, stocks are not moving higher on these releases. In fact, two of the last four quarters saw stocks uncharacteristically decline on the release of good news.
Newsclips
What We’re Reading
May 30, 2018
Today's topics include the crisis in Italy, daily moves in the S&P 500, the budget deficit, rising home prices, the buy-write index, Glenn Hutchins, China's junk bond market, Google's search business and gold.
Newsclips
Cartoons
May 30, 2018
Newsclips
The Markets Take Note Of Italian Political Turmoil
May 29, 2018
There are reasons to take the current concerns of an EU implosion a bit more seriously than the numerous episodes in the past.